Baldissera Pacchetti, Marina, Dessai, Suraje, Stainforth, David A. and Bradley, Seamus (2021) Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information : the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018. Climatic Change, 168 (1-2). 1. doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03187-w ISSN 0165-0009.

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Abstract

In this paper, we assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support climate adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 as an example of such information. Their probabilistic, global, and regional land projections exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of constructing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate along six quality dimensions: transparency; theory; independence, number, and comprehensiveness of evidence; and historical empirical adequacy. The assessment produced two major insights. First, a major issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency, which is particularly problematic since the information is directed towards non-expert users who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections because the former lack both transparency and a theory underpinning the method used to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. The assessment also shows how different dimensions are satisfied depending on the evidence used, the methodology chosen to analyze the evidence, and the type of statements that are constructed in the different strands of UKCP18. This research highlights the importance of knowledge quality assessment of regional climate information that intends to support climate change adaptation decisions.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QC Physics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Physics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Climatic changes, Climatic changes -- Great Britain -- Forecasting, Climatic changes -- Mathematical models, Knowledge management -- Research
Journal or Publication Title:	Climatic Change
Publisher:	Springer Netherlands
ISSN:	0165-0009
Official Date:	6 September 2021
Dates:	Date Event 6 September 2021 Published 23 July 2021 Accepted 8 March 2021 Submitted
Volume:	168
Number:	1-2
Number of Pages:	25
Article Number:	1
DOI:	10.1007/s10584-021-03187-w
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	16 August 2022
Date of first compliant Open Access:	24 August 2022
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant:	Project/Grant ID RIOXX Funder Name Funder ID ES/R009708/1 [ESRC] Economic and Social Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269 UNSPECIFIED Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, University of Leeds http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100012730 UNSPECIFIED Research England http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013589

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