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Non-pharmaceutical interventions and their relevance in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf countries
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Althobaity, Yehya, Wu, Jianhong and Tildesley, Michael J. (2022) Non-pharmaceutical interventions and their relevance in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Saudi Arabia and Arab Gulf countries. Infectious Disease Modelling, 7 (3). pp. 545-560. doi:10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.005 ISSN 2468-0427.
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WRAP-Non-pharmaceutical-interventions-and-their-relevance-in-the-COVID-19-vaccine-rollout-in-Saudi-Arabia-and-Arab-Gulf-countries-Althobaity-2022.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0. Download (1925Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.005
Abstract
In the early stages of the pandemic, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Arab Gulf region relied on non-pharmaceutical therapies to limit the effect of the pandemic, much like other nations across the world. In comparison to other nations in the area or globally, these interventions were successful at lowering the healthcare burden. This was accomplished via the deterioration of the economy, education, and a variety of other societal activities. By the end of 2020, the promise of effective vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 have been realized, and vaccination programs have begun in developed countries, followed by the rest of the world. Despite this, there is still a long way to go in the fight against the disease. In order to explore disease transmission, vaccine rollout and prioritisation, as well as behavioural dynamics, we relied on an age-structured compartmental model. We examine how individual and social behaviour changes in response to the initiation of vaccination campaigns and the relaxation of non-pharmacological treatments. Overall, vaccination remains the most effective method of containing the disease and resuming normal life. Additionally, we evaluate several vaccination prioritisation schemes based on age group, behavioural responses, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination rollout speed. We applied our model to four Arab Gulf nations (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman), which were chosen for their low mortality rate compared to other countries in the region or worldwide, as well as their demographic and economic settings. We fitted the model using actual pandemic data in these countries. Our results suggest that vaccinations focused on the elderly and rapid vaccine distribution are critical for reducing disease resurgence. Our result also reinforces the cautious note that early relaxation of safety measures may compromise the vaccine's short-term advantages.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine | |||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 (Disease) , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Persian Gulf States -- Prevention -- Mathematical models , COVID-19 (Disease) -- Vaccination -- Persian Gulf States | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Infectious Disease Modelling | |||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 2468-0427 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 7 September 2022 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 7 | |||||||||
| Number: | 3 | |||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 545-560 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.idm.2022.08.005 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 7 September 2022 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 8 September 2022 | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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