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Development and validation of a prediction model for self-reported mobility decline in community-dwelling older adults
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Sanchez-Santos, Maria T., Williamson, Esther M., Nicolson, Philippa J.A., Bruce, Julie, Collins, Gary S., Mallen, Christian D., Griffiths, Frances, Garrett, Angela, Morris, Alana, Slark, Mandy and Lamb, Sarah E. (2022) Development and validation of a prediction model for self-reported mobility decline in community-dwelling older adults. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 152 . pp. 70-79. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.09.002 ISSN 0895-4356.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.09.002
Abstract
Objective
To develop and validate two models to predict 2-year risk of self-reported mobility decline among community-dwelling older adults.
Study design and setting
We used data from a prospective cohort study of people aged 65 years and over in England. Mobility status was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L mobility question. The models were based on the outcome: (Model 1) any mobility decline at two years; (Model 2) new-onset of persistent mobility problems over two years. LASSO logistic regression was used to select predictors. Model performance was assessed using c-statistics, calibration plot, Brier scores and decision-curve analyses. Models were internally validated using bootstrapping.
Results
Over 18% of participants who could walk reported mobility decline at year two (Model 1), and 7.1% with no mobility problems at baseline, reported new-onset of mobility problems after two years (Model 2). Thirteen and six out of thirty-one variables were selected as predictors in Model 1 and 2, respectively. Models 1 and 2 had a c-statistic of 0.740 and 0.765 (optimism<0.013), and Brier score=0.136 and 0.069, respectively.
Conclusions
Two prediction models for mobility decline were developed and internally validated. They are based on self-reported variables and could serve as simple assessments in primary care after external validation.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QP Physiology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Clinical Trials Unit Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School > Health Sciences Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Medicine > Warwick Medical School |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Older people -- Orientation and mobility, Aging | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Clinical Epidemiology | |||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier Inc. | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 0895-4356 | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 1 December 2022 | |||||||||
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| Volume: | 152 | |||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 70-79 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.09.002 | |||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 15 September 2022 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 11 November 2022 | |||||||||
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