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Gaussian Process emulation of spatiotemporal outputs of a 2D inland flood model
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Donnelly, James, Abolfathi, Soroush, Pearson, Jonathan, Chatrabgoun, Omid and Daneshkhah, Alireza (2022) Gaussian Process emulation of spatiotemporal outputs of a 2D inland flood model. Water Research, 225 . 119100. doi:10.1016/j.watres.2022.119100
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WRAP-Gaussian-Process-emulation-of-spatiotemporal-outputs-of-a-2D-inland-flood-model-Abolfathi-2022.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (33Mb) | Preview |
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.119100
Abstract
The computational limitations of complex numerical models have led to adoption of statistical emulators across a variety of problems in science and engineering disciplines to circumvent the high computational costs associated with numerical simulations. In flood modelling, many hydraulic and hydrodynamic numerical models, especially when operating at high spatiotemporal resolutions, have prohibitively high computational costs for tasks requiring the instantaneous generation of very large numbers of simulation results. This study examines the appropriateness and robustness of Gaussian Process (GP) models to emulate the results from a hydraulic inundation model. The developed GPs produce real-time predictions based on the simulation output from LISFLOOD-FP numerical model. An efficient dimensionality reduction scheme is developed to tackle the high dimensionality of the output space and is combined with the GPs to investigate the predictive performance of the proposed emulator for estimation of the inundation depth. The developed GP-based framework is capable of robust and straightforward quantification of the uncertainty associated with the predictions, without requiring additional model evaluations and simulations. Further, this study explores the computational advantages of using a GP-based emulator over alternative methodologies such as neural networks, by undertaking a comparative analysis. For the case study data presented in this paper, the GP model was found to accurately reproduce water depths and inundation extent by classification and produce computational speedups of approximately 10,000 times compared with the original simulator, and 80 times for a neural network-based emulator.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Electronic computers. Computer science. Computer software T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Engineering > Engineering | ||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Flood control , Flood forecasting, Flood forecasting -- Mathematical models , Flood forecasting -- Computer simulation , Gaussian processes | ||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Water Research | ||||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier Science Ltd. | ||||||||||
| ISSN: | 0043-1354 | ||||||||||
| Official Date: | 15 October 2022 | ||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 225 | ||||||||||
| Number of Pages: | 17 | ||||||||||
| Article Number: | 119100 | ||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.watres.2022.119100 | ||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access |
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