The Library
Predicting undetected infections during the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak
Tools
Jewell, Chris P., Keeling, Matthew James and Roberts, Gareth O. (2009) Predicting undetected infections during the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol.6 (No.41). pp. 1145-1151. doi:10.1098/rsif.2008.0433 ISSN 1742-5689.
Research output not available from this repository.
Request-a-Copy directly from author or use local Library Get it For Me service.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2008.0433
Abstract
Active disease surveillance during epidemics is of utmost importance in detecting and eliminating new cases quickly, and targeting such surveillance to high-risk individuals is considered more efficient than applying a random strategy. Contact tracing has been used as a form of at-risk targeting, and a variety of mathematical models have indicated that it is likely to be highly efficient. However, for fast-moving epidemics, resource constraints limit the ability of the authorities to perform, and follow up, contact tracing effectively. As an alternative, we present a novel real-time Bayesian statistical methodology to determine currently undetected (occult) infections. For the UK foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic of 2007, we use real-time epidemic data synthesized with previous knowledge of FMD outbreaks in the UK to predict which premises might have been infected, but remained undetected, at any point during the outbreak. This provides both a framework for targeting surveillance in the face of limited resources and an indicator of the current severity and spatial extent of the epidemic. We anticipate that this methodology will be of substantial benefit in future outbreaks, providing a compromise between targeted manual surveillance and random or spatially targeted strategies.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics |
||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Foot-and-mouth disease -- Great Britain -- Statistics, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Epidemiology -- Great Britain, Bayesian statistical decision theory | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Royal Society Interface | ||||
Publisher: | The Royal Society | ||||
ISSN: | 1742-5689 | ||||
Official Date: | 6 December 2009 | ||||
Dates: |
|
||||
Volume: | Vol.6 | ||||
Number: | No.41 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 7 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 1145-1151 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1098/rsif.2008.0433 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
Funder: | Wellcome Trust (London, England) |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
Request changes or add full text files to a record
Repository staff actions (login required)
View Item |