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Patterns of reported infection and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in England
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Keeling, Matthew James (2023) Patterns of reported infection and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in England. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 556 . 111299. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111299 ISSN 0022-5193.
An open access version can be found in:
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111299
Abstract
One of the key features of any infectious disease is whether infection generates long-lasting immunity or whether repeated reinfection is common. In the former, the long-term dynamics are driven by the birth of susceptible individuals while in the latter the dynamics are governed by the speed of waning immunity. Between these two extremes a range of scenarios is possible. During the early waves of SARS-CoV-2, the underlying paradigm was for long-lasting immunity, but more recent data and in particular the 2022 Omicron waves have shown that reinfection can be relatively common. Here we investigate reported SARS-CoV-2 cases in England, partitioning the data into four main waves, and consider the temporal distribution of first and second reports of infection. We show that a simple low-dimensional statistical model of random (but scaled) reinfection captures much of the observed dynamics, with the value of this scaling, k, providing information of underlying epidemiological patterns. We conclude that there is considerable heterogeneity in risk of reporting reinfection by wave, age-group and location. The high levels of reinfection in the Omicron wave (we estimate that 18% of all Omicron cases had been previously infected, although not necessarily previously reported infection) point to reinfection events dominating future COVID-19 dynamics. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics". [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.]
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Theoretical Biology | ||||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0022-5193 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | 7 January 2023 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 556 | ||||||||
| Article Number: | 111299 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111299 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
| Description: | Free access |
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| Open Access Version: |
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