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The importance of livestock demography and infrastructure in driving Foot and Mouth disease dynamics
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Gilbertson, Kendra, Brommesson, Peter, Minter, Amanda, Hallman, Clayton, Miller, Ryan S., Portacci, Katie, Sellman, Stefan, Tildesley, Michael J., Webb, Colleen T., Lindström, Tom and Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. (2022) The importance of livestock demography and infrastructure in driving Foot and Mouth disease dynamics. Life, 12 (10). 1604. doi:10.3390/life12101604 ISSN 2075-1729.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/life12101604
Abstract
Transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) pose a significant and ongoing threat to global food security. Such diseases can produce large, spatially complex outbreaks. Mathematical models are often used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and create response plans for possible disease introductions. Model assumptions regarding transmission behavior of premises and movement patterns of livestock directly impact our understanding of the ecological drivers of outbreaks and how to best control them. Here, we investigate the impact that these assumptions have on model predictions of FMD outbreaks in the U.S. using models of livestock shipment networks and disease spread. We explore the impact of changing assumptions about premises transmission behavior, both by including within-herd dynamics, and by accounting for premises type and increasing the accuracy of shipment predictions. We find that the impact these assumptions have on outbreak predictions is less than the impact of the underlying livestock demography, but that they are important for investigating some response objectives, such as the impact on trade. These results suggest that demography is a key ecological driver of outbreaks and is critical for making robust predictions but that understanding management objectives is also important when making choices about model assumptions.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | |||||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | |||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Life | |||||||||
Publisher: | MDPI | |||||||||
ISSN: | 2075-1729 | |||||||||
Official Date: | 14 October 2022 | |||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 12 | |||||||||
Number: | 10 | |||||||||
Article Number: | 1604 | |||||||||
DOI: | 10.3390/life12101604 | |||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 8 November 2022 | |||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 8 November 2022 | |||||||||
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Contributors: |
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