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Satisfaction and the potentially misleading power of counterfactual reasoning : a field study set before, during and after the COVID-19 lockdown
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Martin, Thomas and Sgroi, Daniel (2022) Satisfaction and the potentially misleading power of counterfactual reasoning : a field study set before, during and after the COVID-19 lockdown. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Department of Economics. Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) (1443). (Unpublished)
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Official URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w...
Abstract
Does imagining what life could have been in the absence of a shock change current satisfaction? To answer this we collect field data through a survey that covers the period before, during and after the COVID-19 lockdown, exploiting the features of a natural experiment combined with induced variation stemming from a randomized control trial (RCT). Our data covers first year students studying before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the full COVID-19 lockdown period, and during the partial COVID-19 lockdown period. The RCT directs a subset of students to imagine how satisfied they could have been in the absence of COVID-19. The control group are instead asked about their current satisfaction. We find that imagining life in the absence of a shock (COVID-19) can impact current satisfaction: the higher individuals think their satisfaction would have been in the absence of the shock, the lower their current satisfaction. However, the natural experiment component of our study suggests that counter- factual reasoning may mislead. By comparing the satisfaction of COVID-19 students asked to imagine university life without COVID-19, with the reported satisfaction of equivalent students just before the arrival of COVID-19, we show students typically over-exaggerate how satisfied they would have been if a negative shock had not happened.
| Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper) | ||||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform L Education > LB Theory and practice of education > LB2300 Higher Education R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-, COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Social aspects , Education, Higher -- Evaluation, College students -- Attitudes | ||||||
| Series Name: | Warwick economics research papers series (WERPS) | ||||||
| Publisher: | University of Warwick. Department of Economics | ||||||
| Place of Publication: | Coventry | ||||||
| ISSN: | 0083-7350 | ||||||
| Official Date: | December 2022 | ||||||
| Dates: |
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| Number: | 1443 | ||||||
| Institution: | University of Warwick | ||||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
| Related URLs: |
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