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Soccer matches as experiments: how often does the 'best' team win?
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Skinner, G. K. and Freeman, Guy. (2009) Soccer matches as experiments: how often does the 'best' team win? Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol.36 (No.10). pp. 1087-1095. ISSN 0266-4763
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664760802715922
Abstract
Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment (match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final score, it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability that it was or was not the case that 'the best team won'. For typical scores, the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of the game to increase the typical number of goals scored would improve the situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game was radically changed.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics |
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of Applied Statistics |
| Publisher: | Routledge |
| ISSN: | 0266-4763 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| Volume: | Vol.36 |
| Number: | No.10 |
| Number of Pages: | 9 |
| Page Range: | pp. 1087-1095 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1080/02664760802715922 |
| Status: | Peer Reviewed |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/17255 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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