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An exploration of within-herd dynamics of a transboundary livestock disease : a foot and mouth disease case study
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Beck-Johnson, L. M., Gorsich, Erin E., Hallman, C., Tildesley, M. J., Miller, R. S. and Webb, C. T. (2023) An exploration of within-herd dynamics of a transboundary livestock disease : a foot and mouth disease case study. Epidemics, 42 . 100668. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100668 ISSN 1755-4365.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100668
Abstract
Transboundary livestock diseases are a high priority for policy makers because of the serious economic burdens associated with infection. In order to make well informed preparedness and response plans, policy makers often utilize mathematical models to understand possible outcomes of different control strategies and outbreak scenarios. Many of these models focus on the transmission between herds and the overall trajectory of the outbreak. While the course of infection within herds has not been the focus of the majority of models, a thorough understanding of within-herd dynamics can provide valuable insight into a disease system by providing information on herd-level biological properties of the infection, which can be used to inform decision making in both endemic and outbreak settings and to inform larger between-herd models. In this study, we develop three stochastic simulation models to study within-herd foot and mouth disease dynamics and the implications of different empirical data-based assumptions about the timing of the onset of infectiousness and clinical signs. We also study the influence of herd size and the proportion of the herd that is initially infected on the outcome of the infection. We find that increasing herd size increases the duration of infectiousness and that the size of the herd plays a more significant role in determining this duration than the number of initially infected cattle in that herd. We also find that the assumptions made regarding the onset of infectiousness and clinical signs, which are based on contradictory empirical findings, can result in the predictions about when infection would be detectable differing by several days. Therefore, the disease progression used to characterize the course of infection in a single bovine host could have significant implications for determining when herds can be detected and subsequently controlled; the timing of which could influence the overall predicted trajectory of outbreaks.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | S Agriculture > SF Animal culture | ||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Livestock -- Diseases -- Mathematical models, Livestock -- Diseases -- Epidemiology, Foot and mouth disease -- Epidemiology | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Epidemics | ||||||||
Publisher: | Elsevier BV | ||||||||
ISSN: | 1755-4365 | ||||||||
Official Date: | March 2023 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 42 | ||||||||
Article Number: | 100668 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100668 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 January 2023 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 16 January 2023 | ||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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