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The autocorrelated Bayesian sampler : a rational process for probability judgments, estimates, confidence intervals, choices, confidence judgments, and response times
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Zhu, Jianqiao, Sundh, Joakim, Spicer, Jake, Chater, Nick and Sanborn, Adam N. (2023) The autocorrelated Bayesian sampler : a rational process for probability judgments, estimates, confidence intervals, choices, confidence judgments, and response times. Psychological Review . ISSN 0033-295X. (In Press)
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Abstract
Normative models of decision-making that optimally transform noisy (sensory) information into categorical decisions qualitatively mismatch human behavior. Indeed, leading computational models have only achieved high empirical corroboration by adding task-specific assumptions that deviate from normative principles. In response, we offer a Bayesian approach that implicitly produces a posterior distribution of possible answers (hypotheses) in response to sensory information. But we assume that the brain has no direct access to this posterior, but can only sample hypotheses according to their posterior probabilities. Accordingly, we argue that the primary problem of normative concern in decision-making is integrating stochastic hypotheses, rather than stochastic sensory information, to make categorical decisions. This implies that human response variability arises mainly from posterior sampling rather than sensory noise. Because human hypothesis generation is serially correlated, hypothesis samples will be autocorrelated. Guided by this new problem formulation, we develop a new process, the Autocorrelated Bayesian Sampler (ABS), which grounds autocorrelated hypothesis generation in a sophisticated sampling algorithm. The ABS provides a single mechanism that qualitatively explains many empirical effects of probability judgments, estimates, confidence intervals, choice, confidence judgments, response times, and their relationships. Our analysis demonstrates the unifying power of a perspective shift in the exploration of normative models. It also exemplifies the proposal that the “Bayesian brain” operates using samples not probabilities, and that variability in human behavior may primarily reflect computational rather than sensory noise.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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| Subjects: | B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology H Social Sciences > HA Statistics |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology | |||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Psychology, Sampling (Statistics) , Cognition -- Mathematical models, Decision making -- Mathematical models, Judgment -- Psychological aspects | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Psychological Review | |||||||||
| Publisher: | American Psychological Association | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 0033-295X | |||||||||
| Official Date: | 2023 | |||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
| Publication Status: | In Press | |||||||||
| Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | ©American Psychological Association,2023. This paper is not the copy of record and may not exactly replicate the authoritative document published in the APA journal. The final article is available, upon publication, at: [ARTICLE DOI] | |||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 17 February 2023 | |||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 20 February 2023 | |||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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