Tildesley, Michael J., Bessell, Paul R., Keeling, Matthew James and Woolhouse, Mark E. J.. (2009) The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease. Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences, Vol.276 (No.1671). pp. 3239-3248. ISSN 0962-8452

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Abstract

The 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic was controlled by culling of infectious premises and preemptive culling intended to limit the spread of disease. Of the control strategies adopted, routine culling of farms that were contiguous to infected premises caused the most controversy. Here we perform a retrospective analysis of the culling of contiguous premises as performed in 2001 and a simulation study of the effects of this policy on reducing the number of farms affected by disease. Our simulation results support previous studies and show that a national policy of contiguous premises (CPs) culling leads to fewer farms losing livestock. The optimal national policy for controlling the 2001 epidemic is found to be the targeting of all contiguous premises, whereas for localized outbreaks in high animal density regions, more extensive fixed radius ring culling is optimal. Analysis of the 2001 data suggests that the lowest-risk CPs were generally prioritized for culling, however, even in this case, the policy is predicted to be effective. A sensitivity analysis and the development of a spatially heterogeneous policy show that the optimal culling level depends upon the basic reproductive ratio of the infection and the width of the dispersal kernel. These analyses highlight an important and probably quite general result: optimal control is highly dependent upon the distance over which the pathogen can be transmitted, the transmission rate of infection and local demography where the disease is introduced.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Journal or Publication Title:	Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
Publisher:	The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN:	0962-8452
Date:	22 September 2009
Volume:	Vol.276
Number:	No.1671
Number of Pages:	10
Page Range:	pp. 3239-3248
Identification Number:	10.1098/rspb.2009.0427
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Description:	Published online before print; 01 July 2009
Funder:	MIDAS NIH, Wellcome Trust (London, England), SFC/DEFRA VTRI
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/17469

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