Estimating the risk of reoffending by using exponential mixture models
UNSPECIFIED. (1997) Estimating the risk of reoffending by using exponential mixture models. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, 160 (Part 2). pp. 237-252. ISSN 0035-9238Full text not available from this repository.
In deciding whether to release a prisoner on parole, the Parole Board as provided with a statistical score which estimates the chance that the prisoner will reoffend within the period of time that he or she would otherwise be in prison. This score is based on a survival analysis of data on a sample of releases from long-term prison sentences. To capture most reoffences which occur within 2 years of release, follow-up must continue for at least 3 years to allow for the delay between offence and conviction. We reanalyse the data by using a model which explicitly allows for this delay. The new analysis can be applied to data with a substantially shorter length of follow-up. This means that risk scores can be constructed from more up-to-date data and at less cost.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences
Q Science > QA Mathematics
|Journal or Publication Title:||JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY|
|Publisher:||BLACKWELL PUBL LTD|
|Number of Pages:||16|
|Page Range:||pp. 237-252|
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