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The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom
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Brand, Samuel P. C., Cavallaro, Massimo, Cumming, Fergus, Turner, Charlie, Florence, Isaac, Blomquist, Paula, Hilton, Joe, Guzman-Rincon, Laura, House, Thomas, Nokes, D. James and Keeling, Matthew James (2023) The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom. Nature Communications, 14 . 4100. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38816-8 ISSN 2041-1723.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38816-8
Abstract
Beginning in May 2022, Mpox virus spread rapidly in high-income countries through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may have reduced the rate of transmission and modified Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. We investigate the UK epidemic presenting 26-week projections using a stochastic discrete-population transmission model which includes GBMSM status, rate of formation of new sexual partnerships, and clique partitioning of the population. The Mpox cases peaked in mid-July; our analysis is that the decline was due to decreased transmission rate per infected individual and infection-induced immunity among GBMSM, especially those with the highest rate of new partners. Vaccination did not cause Mpox incidence to turn over, however, we predict that a rebound in cases due to behaviour reversion was prevented by high-risk group-targeted vaccination.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Communications | ||||||
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group | ||||||
ISSN: | 2041-1723 | ||||||
Official Date: | 11 July 2023 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 14 | ||||||
Article Number: | 4100 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-023-38816-8 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 17 May 2023 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 12 July 2023 | ||||||
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