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Identification of dynamical changes of rabies transmission under quarantine : community-based measures towards rabies elimination
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Rysava, Kristyna and Tildesley, Michael J. (2023) Identification of dynamical changes of rabies transmission under quarantine : community-based measures towards rabies elimination. PLoS Computational Biology, 19 (12). e1011187. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011187 ISSN 1553-7358.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011187
Abstract
Quarantine has been long used as a public health response to emerging infectious diseases, particularly at the onset of an epidemic when the infected proportion of a population remains identifiable and logistically tractable. In theory, the same logic should apply to low-incidence infections; however, the application and impact of quarantine in low prevalence settings appears less common and lacks a formal analysis. Here, we present a quantitative framework using a series of progressively more biologically realistic models of canine rabies in domestic dogs and from dogs to humans, a suitable example system to characterize dynamical changes under varying levels of dog quarantine. We explicitly incorporate health-seeking behaviour data to inform the modelling of contact-tracing and exclusion of rabies suspect and probable dogs that can be identified through bite-histories of patients presenting at anti-rabies clinics. We find that a temporary quarantine of rabies suspect and probable dogs provides a powerful tool to curtail rabies transmission, especially in settings where optimal vaccination coverage is yet to be achieved, providing a critical stopgap to reduce the number of human and animal deaths due to rabid bites. We conclude that whilst comprehensive measures including sensitive surveillance and large-scale vaccination of dogs will be required to achieve disease elimination and sustained freedom given the persistent risk of rabies re-introductions, quarantine offers a low-cost community driven solution to intersectoral health burden.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RC Internal medicine S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | |||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Rabies in dogs, Rabies in dogs -- Transmission , Rabies in dogs -- Prevention -- Mathematical models, Quarantine, Veterinary , Dogs -- Quarantine, Rabies | |||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | PLoS Computational Biology | |||||||||
Publisher: | Public Library of Science | |||||||||
ISSN: | 1553-7358 | |||||||||
Official Date: | 15 December 2023 | |||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 19 | |||||||||
Number: | 12 | |||||||||
Article Number: | e1011187 | |||||||||
DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011187 | |||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 23 November 2023 | |||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 27 November 2023 | |||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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