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Confirmation bias emerges from an approximation to Bayesian reasoning
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Pilgrim, C., Sanborn, Adam N., Malthouse, E. and Hills, Thomas Trenholm (2024) Confirmation bias emerges from an approximation to Bayesian reasoning. Cognition, 245 . 105693. doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105693 ISSN 0010-0277.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105693
Abstract
Confirmation bias is defined as searching for and assimilating information in a way that favours existing beliefs. We show that confirmation bias emerges as a natural consequence of boundedly rational belief updating by presenting the BIASR model (Bayesian updating with an Independence Approximation and Source Reliability). In this model, an individual’s beliefs about a hypothesis and the source reliability form a Bayesian network. Upon receiving information, an individual simultaneously updates beliefs about the hypothesis in question and the reliability of the information source. If the individual updates rationally then this introduces numerous dependencies between beliefs, the tracking of which represents an unrealistic demand on memory. We propose that human cognition overcomes this memory limitation by assuming independence between beliefs, evidence for which is provided in prior research. We show how a Bayesian belief updating model incorporating this independence approximation generates many types of confirmation bias, including biased evaluation, biased assimilation, attitude polarisation, belief perseverance and confirmation bias in the selection of sources.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics | ||||||||||||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Psychology | ||||||||||||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Human information processing, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Belief and doubt | ||||||||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Cognition | ||||||||||||||||||
Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0010-0277 | ||||||||||||||||||
Official Date: | April 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 245 | ||||||||||||||||||
Article Number: | 105693 | ||||||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105693 | ||||||||||||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 12 December 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 23 January 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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