Dhillon, Amrita, García Fronti, Javier I., Ghosal, Sayantan and Miller, Marcus, 1941- (2006) Bargaining and sustainability: the Argentine debt swap of 2005. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation. (Working papers (University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation).

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Abstract

When Argentine sovereign default in December 2001 led to a collapse of the peso, the burden of dollar debt became demonstrably unsustainable. But it was not clear what restructuring was feasible, nor when. Eventually, in 2005 after a delay of more than three years, a supermajority of creditors accepted a swap implying a recovery rate of around 37 cents in the dollar. In this paper a bargaining approach is used to explain both the settlement and the delay. We conclude that the agreed swap broadly corresponds to a bargaining outcome where the Argentine government had “first mover” advantage: and that substantial delay occurred as negotiators seeking a sustainable settlement waited for economic recovery. Factors not explicit in the formal framework are also considered -- heterogeneity of creditors, for example, and the role of third parties in promoting “good faith” bargaining.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics Faculty of Social Sciences > Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Debt relief -- Argentina, Debts, Public -- Argentina, Sustainable development -- Argentina, Argentina -- Politics and government, Argentina -- Economic conditions -- 1983-
Series Name:	Working papers (University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation)
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	January 2006
Number:	No.189
Number of Pages:	37
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC)
Grant number:	RES-051-27-0125 (ESRC)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/1914

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