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A REEVALUATION OF THE QUASI-BAYES APPROACH TO THE LINEAR COMBINATION OF FORECASTS
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UNSPECIFIED (1995) A REEVALUATION OF THE QUASI-BAYES APPROACH TO THE LINEAR COMBINATION OF FORECASTS. JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 14 (6). pp. 533-542. ISSN 0277-6693.
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Abstract
The subjective forecasts used in decision analysis should, in principle, synthesize all available evidence about the subject in analysis. In this manner, when part of the evidence consists of a variety of forecasting models or expert opinions, Decision Theory requires the decision maker to formulate a combination of these predictors. This work takes into account the Bayesian methodologies outperformance and quasi-Bayes, as well as the classical model of optimal combination, all applied to the linear combination of petroleum price forecasts, generated by experts from Petrobras-the Brazilian oil company-for several international markets. It presents a theoretical description of the methodologies followed by a comparative analysis between performances of the best experts' forecasts and combinations. The performances and features of these combinations are also compared.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor |
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Journal or Publication Title: | JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | ||||
Publisher: | JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD | ||||
ISSN: | 0277-6693 | ||||
Official Date: | November 1995 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 14 | ||||
Number: | 6 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 10 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 533-542 | ||||
Publication Status: | Published |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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