UNSPECIFIED (1995) ALTERNATIVE PROCEDURES FOR CONVERTING QUALITATIVE RESPONSE DATA TO QUANTITATIVE EXPECTATIONS - AN APPLICATION TO AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING. In: Australasian Meeting of the Econometric-Society, JUL, 1992, MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA.

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Abstract

This paper analyses and extends alternative procedures for converting qualitative expectations responses to quantitative expectations. A number of conversion procedures is investigated, including the probability model, the time-varying parameter probability model, and the regression approach. The informational content of the survey expectations is compared with simple time series models. It is found that the expectations models are superior for many series, both in terms of producing lower forecast root mean square error (RMSE) values and in detecting turning points in the actual data. Survey expectations are also tested for rational expectations in aggregate using the orthogonality test.

Item Type:	Conference Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences
Journal or Publication Title:	JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS
Publisher:	JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD
ISSN:	0883-7252
Date:	April 1995
Volume:	10
Number:	2
Number of Pages:	21
Page Range:	pp. 165-185
Publication Status:	Published
Title of Event:	Australasian Meeting of the Econometric-Society
Location of Event:	MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA
Date(s) of Event:	JUL, 1992
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/19799

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