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ESTIMATES OF DISEASE INCIDENCE IN WOMEN BASED ON ANTENATAL OR NEONATAL SEROPREVALENCE DATA - HIV IN NEW-YORK-CITY

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UNSPECIFIED. (1994) ESTIMATES OF DISEASE INCIDENCE IN WOMEN BASED ON ANTENATAL OR NEONATAL SEROPREVALENCE DATA - HIV IN NEW-YORK-CITY. STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, 13 (18). pp. 1881-1894. ISSN 0277-6715

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Abstract

Piecewise constant incidence models were developed to estimate the force of infection in women from age-and time-specific antenatal or neonatal seroprevalence data. Differential inclusion of infected women in sere-surveys compared to uninfected women was taken into account, with respect to both changes in inclusion rate following infection, and changes in relative inclusion rate over calendar time. These models were applied to anonymous HIV seroprevalence data collected from neonates born to black and Hispanic women in New York City 1988-1992, with incidence and fertility parameters estimated by maximum likelihood. Estimates of inclusion rate parameters accorded well with what is known about the natural history of HIV. The data could not distinguish between additive and multiplicative combination of the effects of age and time on incidence. Incidence was strongly dependent on age with the highest incidence in women aged 20-34 years. There was strong evidence that incidence had been falling in Hispanic women since 1982-1984. The results illustrate the extent to which trends in incidence over time may be confounded by changes in the relative inclusion rate of infected and uninfected women.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
R Medicine
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Journal or Publication Title: STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
Publisher: JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD
ISSN: 0277-6715
Date: 30 September 1994
Volume: 13
Number: 18
Number of Pages: 14
Page Range: pp. 1881-1894
Publication Status: Published
URI: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/20306

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

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