Marchesi, Silvia (2000) Adoption of an IMF programme and debt rescheduling: an empirical analysis. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation. (Working papers (University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation).

Preview

PDF WRAP_Marchesi_wp5600.pdf - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader Download (1997Kb)

Abstract

The existence of an empirical relationship between the adoption of an IMF programme and the concession of a debt rescheduling by commercial and official creditors is tested using a bivariate probit model. If countries who have arrangements with the IMF are more likely than others to obtain a rescheduling of their external debt we could conclude that the adoption of an IMF programme could work as a sort of signal of a country's "good willingness", which is thus rewarded with the debt relief. The results confirm the existence of a significant effect of the adoption of an IMF programme on the subsequent concession of a debt rescheduling by creditors.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	International Monetary Fund, Debts, Public, Debt relief, Probits, International economic relations
Series Name:	Working papers (University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation)
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	June 2000
Number:	No.56/
Number of Pages:	33
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Marie Curie Fellowship Association (MCFA)
Grant number:	ERB4001GT973677 (MCFA)
References:	Bäcker A. (1992) “Country balance sheet data vs. traditional macro variables in a logit model to predict debt rescheduling.” Economic Letters, Vol. 38, pp. 207-212. Berg A. and J. Sachs (1988) “The Debt Crisis.” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 29, pp. 271-306. Bird G. and T. Orme (1981) “An Analysis of Drawings on the International Monetary Fund by Developing Countries.” World Development, Vol. 9 No. 6, pp. 563-568. Bird G. (1995) “IMF Lending to Developing Countries: Issues and Evidence.” Routledge, London. Boote A. R. and K. Thugge (1997) “Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries and the HIPC Initiative.” IMW Working Paper No. 97/24. Cline W.R. (1995) “International debt re-examined.” Institute for International Economic, Washington, DC. Conway P. (1994) “IMF lending programs: participation and impact.” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 45, pp. 365-391. Cornelius P. (1987) “The demand for IMF credits by sub-Saharan African countries.” Economics Letters, Vol. 23, pp. 99-102. Eaton J. and M. Gersovitz (1981) “Debt with Potential Repudation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis'' Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 48, pp. 289-309. Ebenroth C-T., Maina Peter C. and M.J. Kemner (1995) “Rescheduling of the Sovereign Debt: A New Role for the Paris Club.” Journal of International Banking Law, Vol. 10, pp. 280-292. Green W.H. (1990) “Econometric Analysis.” Prenctice Hall. Joyce J.P. (1992) “The economic characteristics of IMF program countries.” Economic Letters Vol. 38, pp. 237-242. Killick T. (1995) “IMF Programmes in Developing Countries. Design and Impact.” Routledge, London and New York. Knight M. and J.A. Santaella (1997) “Economic Determinants of IMF financial arrangements.” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 54, pp. 405-436. Lanoie P. and S. Lemarbre (1996) “Three approaches to predict the timing and quantity of LDC debt rescheduling.” Applied Economics, Vol. 28, pp. 241-246. Lee S.H. (1991) “Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases.” Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 15, pp. 5-27 Lloyd-Ellis H., McKenzie G.W. and S.H. Thomas (1989) “Using Country Balance Sheet Data to predict Debt Rescheduling.” Economics Letters, Vol. 31, pp. 173-177. Lloyd-Ellis H., McKenzie G.W. and S.H. Thomas (1990) “Predicting the Quantity of LDC Debt Rescheduling.'' Economics Letters, Vol. 32, pp. 67-73. Maddala G.S. (1983) “Limited-Dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics.” Cambridge University Press. Marchesi S. and J.P. Thomas (1999) “IMF conditionality as a screening device.” Economic Journal, Vol. 109, pp. 111-125. Saini K.G. and P.S. Bates (1984) “A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis.” Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 8, pp. 341-356.
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/2069

Request changes to a record

Actions (login required)

View Item