BAYESIAN UPDATING OF ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION MODELS FOR USE AFTER AN ACCIDENTAL RELEASE OF RADIOACTIVITY
UNSPECIFIED. (1993) BAYESIAN UPDATING OF ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION MODELS FOR USE AFTER AN ACCIDENTAL RELEASE OF RADIOACTIVITY. STATISTICIAN, 42 (5). pp. 501-511. ISSN 0039-0526Full text not available from this repository.
We report on the development of the Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty handling components of a decision support for emergency management in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. In particular, we focus on the forecasting of the spread of the contamination. We describe a simple but novel form of stochastic Bayes linear model. This closely mirrors well-developed (Gaussian) puff atmospheric dispersion models, but admits effective Bayesian learning procedures on the values of uncertain variables. Several features of the model are highlighted and its workings illustrated on (partially simulated) test data.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||Q Science > QA Mathematics|
|Journal or Publication Title:||STATISTICIAN|
|Publisher:||BLACKWELL PUBL LTD|
|Number of Pages:||11|
|Page Range:||pp. 501-511|
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