UNSPECIFIED (1994) A BAYESIAN DECISION APPROACH TO MODEL MONITORING AND CUSUMS. JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 13 (1). pp. 29-36. ISSN 0277-6693

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Abstract

Cumulative Sum techniques are widely used in quality control and model monitoring. A single-sided cusum may be regarded essentially as a sequence of sequential tests which, in many cases, such as those for the Exponential Family, is equivalent to a Sequence of Sequential Probability Ratio Tests. The relationship between cusums and Bayesian decisions is difficult to establish using conventional methods. An alternative approach is proposed which not only reveals a relation but also offers a very simple formulation of the decision process involved in model monitoring. This is first illustrated for a Normal mean and then extended to other important practical cases including Dynamic Models. For V-mask cusum graphs a particular feature is the interpretation of the distance of the V vertex from the latest plotted point in terms of the prior precision as measured in 'equivalent' observations.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Journal or Publication Title:	JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
Publisher:	JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD
ISSN:	0277-6693
Date:	January 1994
Volume:	13
Number:	1
Number of Pages:	8
Page Range:	pp. 29-36
Publication Status:	Published
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/20904

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