Forecasting the educational-participation rate of 16-year olds in England and Wales : a socioeconomic approach
Whitfield, Keith and Wilson, Robert A., 1951-. (1991) Forecasting the educational-participation rate of 16-year olds in England and Wales : a socioeconomic approach. International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 7 (Number 1). pp. 65-76. ISSN 0169-2070Full text not available from this repository.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(91)90034-S
This paper describes a model of the educational participation rate of 16-year olds in England and Wales which is used to produce forecasts up to 1995/1996. Previous models are briefly reviewed and argued to be inadequate. A new socio-economic model is presented based upon principles of cointegration and general to specific modelling, which satisfies a battery of diagnostic tests. Projections based on the model suggest that there will be a substantial rise in the educational participation rate in the period to 1995/1996. This projected rise is much greater than that suggested by the trend-extrapolation techniques which are more commonly used in this area.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Institute for Employment Research|
|Journal or Publication Title:||International Journal of Forecasting|
|Book Title:||Forecasting the educational participation rate of 16 year olds in England and Wales : a socio-economic approach|
|Official Date:||May 1991|
|Number of Pages:||33|
|Page Range:||pp. 65-76|
|Access rights to Published version:||Restricted or Subscription Access|
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