House, Thomas A. and Keeling, Matthew James. (2010) The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations. PLoS Computational Biology, Vol.6 (No.3). Article no. e1000721. ISSN 1553-734X

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Abstract

The tracing of potentially infectious contacts has become an important part of the control strategy for many infectious diseases, from early cases of novel infections to endemic sexually transmitted infections. Here, we make use of mathematical models to consider the case of partner notification for sexually transmitted infection, however these models are sufficiently simple to allow more general conclusions to be drawn. We show that, when contact network structure is considered in addition to contact tracing, standard “mass action” models are generally inadequate. To consider the impact of mutual contacts (specifically clustering) we develop an improvement to existing pairwise network models, which we use to demonstrate that ceteris paribus, clustering improves the efficacy of contact tracing for a large region of parameter space. This result is sometimes reversed, however, for the case of highly effective contact tracing. We also develop stochastic simulations for comparison, using simple re-wiring methods that allow the generation of appropriate comparator networks. In this way we contribute to the general theory of network-based interventions against infectious disease.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Communicable diseases -- Transmission -- Mathematical models, Sexually transmitted diseases -- Prevention, Vector control, Social networks -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title:	PLoS Computational Biology
Publisher:	Public Library of Science
ISSN:	1553-734X
Date:	26 March 2010
Volume:	Vol.6
Number:	No.3
Number of Pages:	9
Page Range:	Article no. e1000721
Identification Number:	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000721
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Wellcome Trust (London, England), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/2392

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