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Selective drop-out in longitudinal studies and non-biased prediction of behaviour disorders

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Wolke, Dieter, Waylen , Andrea E., Samara, Muthanna, Steer, Colin, Goodman, Robert, MRCPsych, Ford, Tamsin and Lamberts, Koen. (2009) Selective drop-out in longitudinal studies and non-biased prediction of behaviour disorders. British Journal of Psychiatry, Vol.195 (No.3). pp. 249-256. ISSN 0007-1250

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1192/bjp.bp.108.053751

Abstract

Background Participant drop-out occurs in all longitudinal studies, and if systematic, may lead to selection biases and erroneous conclusions being drawn from a study. Aims We investigated whether drop out in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC) was systematic or random, and if systematic, whether it had an impact on the prediction of disruptive behaviour disorders. Method Teacher reports of disruptive behaviour among currently participating, previously participating and never participating children aged 8 years in the ALSPAC longitudinal study were collected. Data on family factors were obtained in pregnancy. Simulations were conducted to explain the impact of selective drop-out on the strength of prediction. Results Drop out from the ALSPAC cohort was systematic and children who dropped out were more likely to suffer from disruptive behaviour disorder. Systematic participant drop-out according to the family variables, however, did not alter the association between family factors obtained in pregnancy and disruptive behaviour disorder at 8 years of age. Conclusions Cohort studies are prone to selective drop-out and are likely to underestimate the prevalence of psychiatric disorder. This empirical study and the simulations confirm that the validity of regression models is only marginally affected despite range restrictions after selective drop-out.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
Divisions:	Other > Institute of Advanced Study Faculty of Science > Psychology
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children, Medicine -- Research, Longitudinal method, Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, Oppositional defiant disorder in children
Journal or Publication Title:	British Journal of Psychiatry
Publisher:	Royal College of Psychiatrists
ISSN:	0007-1250
Date:	September 2009
Volume:	Vol.195
Number:	No.3
Page Range:	pp. 249-256
Identification Number:	10.1192/bjp.bp.108.053751
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC), Wellcome Trust (London, England), University of Bristol, Health Foundation (Great Britain) (HF)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/2419