Implications of vaccination and waning immunity
Heffernan, J. M. and Keeling, Matthew James. (2009) Implications of vaccination and waning immunity. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol.276 (No.1664). pp. 2071-2080. ISSN 0962-8452Full text not available from this repository.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0057
For infectious diseases where immunization can offer lifelong protection, a variety of simple models can be used to explain the utility of vaccination as a control method. However, for many diseases, immunity wanes over time and is subsequently enhanced ( boosted) by asymptomatic encounters with the infection. The study of this type of epidemiological process requires a model formulation that can capture both the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and immune system as well as the associated population-level transmission dynamics. Here, we parametrize such a model for measles and show how vaccination can have a range of unexpected consequences as it reduces the natural boosting of immunity as well as reducing the number of naive susceptibles. In particular, we show that moderate waning times (40-80 years) and high levels of vaccination ( greater than 70%) can induce large-scale oscillations with substantial numbers of symptomatic cases being generated at the peak. In addition, we predict that, after a long disease-free period, the introduction of infection will lead to far larger epidemics than that predicted by standard models. These results have clear implications for the long-term success of any vaccination campaign and highlight the need for a sound understanding of the immunological mechanisms of immunity and vaccination.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Faculty of Science > Mathematics
|Journal or Publication Title:||Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences|
|Publisher:||The Royal Society Publishing|
|Date:||7 June 2009|
|Number of Pages:||10|
|Page Range:||pp. 2071-2080|
|Access rights to Published version:||Restricted or Subscription Access|
|Funder:||Leverhulme Trust (LT), Medical Research Council, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Shared Hierarchical Academic Research Computing Network (SHARCNET)|
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