White, Lisa J., Buttery, J., Cooper, Ben S., Nokes, D. James and Medley, Graham. (2008) Rotavirus within day care centres in Oxfordshire, UK : characterization of partial immunity. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol.5 (No.29). pp. 1481-1490. ISSN 1742-5689

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Abstract

Repeated measures data for rotavirus infection in children within 14 day care centres (DCCs) in the Oxfordshire area, UK, are used to explore aspects of rotavirus transmission and immunity. A biologically realistic model for the transmission of infection is presented as a set of probability models suitable for application to the data. Two transition events are modelled separately: incidence and recovery. The complexity of the underlying mechanistic model is reflected in the choice of the fixed variables in the probability models. Parameter estimation was carried out using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We use the parameter estimates obtained to build a pro. le of the natural history of rotavirus reinfection in an individual child. We infer that rotavirus transmission in children in DCCs is dependent on the DCC prevalence, with symptomatic infection of longer duration, but no more infectious per day of infectious period, than asymptomatic infection. There was evidence that a recent previous infection reduces the risk of disease and, to a lesser extent, reinfection, but not duration of infection. The results provide evidence that partial immunity to rotavirus infection develops over several time scales.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QR Microbiology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Rotavirus infections -- Case studies, Rotavirus infections -- Transmission -- Mathematical models, Immunity, Markov processes, Monte Carlo method
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Publisher:	The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN:	1742-5689
Date:	6 December 2008
Volume:	Vol.5
Number:	No.29
Number of Pages:	10
Page Range:	pp. 1481-1490
Identification Number:	10.1098/rsif.2008.0115
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Funder:	Wellcome Trust (London, England), Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian (FCG), Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), European Commission (EC), NHS Executive. South East
Grant number:	061584 (WT), 076278 (WT), MEXT-CT-2004-14338 (EC), SPGS769 (NHS)
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/28836

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

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