Bull, James C. (James Christopher) and Bonsall, Michael. (2008) Overcompensatory population dynamic responses to environmental stochasticity. Journal of Animal Ecology, Volume 77 (Number 6). pp. 1296-1305. ISSN 0021-8790

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

1. To quantify the interactions between density-dependent, population regulation and density-independent limitation, we studied the time-series dynamics of an experimental laboratory insect microcosm system in which both environmental noise and resource limitation were manipulated. 2. A hierarchical Bayesian state-space approach is presented through which it is feasible to capture all sources of uncertainty, including observation error to accurately quantify the density dependence operating on the dynamics. 3. The regulatory processes underpinning the dynamics of two different bruchid beetles (Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis) are principally determined by environmental conditions, with fluctuations in abundance explained in terms of changes in overcompensatory dynamics and stochastic processes. 4. A general, stochastic population model is developed to explore the link between abundance fluctuations and the interaction between density dependence and noise. Taking account of time-lags in population regulation can substantially increase predicted population fluctuations resulting from underlying noise processes.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology Q Science > QL Zoology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Callosobruchus, Population biology, Population density, State-space methods, Stochastic analysis, Time-series analysis
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of Animal Ecology
Publisher:	Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
ISSN:	0021-8790
Date:	November 2008
Volume:	Volume 77
Number:	Number 6
Number of Pages:	10
Page Range:	pp. 1296-1305
Identification Number:	10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01449.x
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	Royal Society (Great Britain), Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (NERC)
References:	Allee, W.C. (1931) Animal Aggregations: A Study in General Sociology. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois. Anderson, C.N.K., Hsieh, C.-H., Sandin, S.A., Hewitt, R., Hollowed, A., Beddington, J., May, R.M. & Sugihara, G. (2008) Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature, 452, 835–839. Bellows, T.S. (1982a) Analytical models for laboratory populations of Callosobruchus chinensis and C. maculatus (Coleoptera, Bruchidae). Journal of Animal Ecology, 51, 263–287. Bellows, T.S. (1982b) Simulation models for laboratory populations of Callosobruchus chinensis and C. maculatus. Journal of Animal Ecology, 51, 597–623. Benton, T.G. (2006) Revealing the ghost in the machine: using spectral analysis to understand the influence of noise on population dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 103, 18387–18388. Benton, T.G., Lapsley, C.T. & Beckerman, A.P. (2002) The population response to environmental noise: population size, variance and correlation in an experimental system. Journal of Animal Ecology, 71, 320–332. Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Noisy clockwork: time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science, 293, 638–643. Bjørnstad, O.N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N.C., Falck, W., Sait, S.M. & Thompson, D.J. (1998) Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology, 67, 110–126. Bonsall, M.B. & Hastings, A. (2004) Demographic and environmental stochasticity in predator-prey metapopulation dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology, 73, 1043–1055. Bonsall, M.B., French, D.R. & Hassell, M.P. (2002) Metapopulation structures affect persistence of predator-prey interactions. Journal of Animal Ecology, 71, 1075–1084. Bonsall, M.B., Bull, J.C., Pickup, N.J. & Hassell, M.P. (2005) Indirect effects and spatial scaling affect the persistence of multispecies metapopulations. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 272, 1465–1471. Box, G. & Jenkins, G. (1970) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco. Box, G.E.P. & Cox, D.R. (1964) An analysis of transformations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 26, 211–252. Bull, J.C., Pickup, N.J., Hassell, M.P. & Bonsall, M.B. (2006) Habitat shape, metapopulation processes and the dynamics of multispecies predator-prey interactions. Journal of Animal Ecology, 75, 899–907. Bull, J.C., Pickup, N.J., Pickett, B., Hassell, M.P. & Bonsall, M.B. (2007) Metapopulation extinction risk is increased by environmental stochasticity and assemblage complexity. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 214, 87–96. Burnham, K.P. & Anderson, D.R. (2002) Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-theoretic Approach. 2nd edn. Springer- Verlag Inc., New York. Clark, J.S. (2007) Models for Ecological Data: An Introduction. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey. Coulson, T., Catchpole, E.A., Albon, S.D., Morgan, B.J.T., Pemberton, J.M., Clutton-Brock, T.H., Crawley, M.J. & Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Age, sex, density. winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science, 292, 1528– 1531. Coulson, T., Benton, T.G, Lundberg, P., Dall, S.R.X., Kendall, B.E. & Gaillard, J.M. (2006) Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 273, 547–555. Courchamp, F., Berec, L. & Gascoigne, J. (2008) Allee Effects in Ecology and Conservation. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. Dennis, B., Desharnais, R.A., Cushing, J.M., Henson, S.M. & Costantino, R.F. (2001) Estimating chaos and complex dynamics in an insect population. Ecological Monographs, 71, 277–303. Fowler, C.W. (1981) Density dependence as related to life history strategy. Ecology, 62, 602–610. Fujii, K. (1968) Studies on interspecies competition between the azuki bean weevil and the southern cowpea weevil. III. Some characteristics of strains of two species. Researches on Population Ecology, 10, 87–98. Greenman, J.V. & Benton, T.G. (2001) The impact of stochasticity on the behaviour of nonlinear population models: synchrony and the Moran effect. Oikos, 93, 343–351. Gurney, W.S.C. & Nisbet, R.M. (1998) Ecological Dynamics. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. Hassell, M.P., Taylor, V.A. & Reader, P.M. (1989) The dynamics of laboratory populations of Callosobruchus chinensis and C. maculatus (Coleoptera: Bruchidae) in patchy environment. Researches on Population Ecology, 31, 35–52. Leirs, H., Stenseth, N.C., Nichols, J.D., Hines, J.E., Verhagen, R. & Verheyen, W. (1997) Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent. Nature, 389, 176–180. May, R.M. (1972) Limit cycles in predator-prey communities. Science, 177, 900–902. May, R.M. (1974) Biological populations with nonoverlapping generations – stable points, stable cycles and chaos. Science, 186, 645–647. Michielsens, C.G.J. & McAllister, M.K. (2004) Bayesian hierarchical analysis of stock–recruit data: quantifying structural and parameter uncertainties. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 61, 1032–1047. Pelletier, F., Clutton-Brock, T., Pemberton, J., Tuljapurkar, S. & Coulson, T. (2007) The evolutionary demography of ecological change: linking trait variation and population growth. Science, 315, 1571–1574. Ratikainen, I.I., Gill, J.A., Gunnarsson, T.G., Sutherland, W.J. & Kokko, H. (2008) When density dependence is not instantaneous: theoretical developments and management implications. Ecology Letters, 11, 184–198. Rivot, E., Prévost, E., Parent, E. & Baglinière, J.L. (2004) Bayesian state-space modelling framework for fitting salmon stage-structured population dynamic model to multiple time series of field data. Ecological Modelling, 179, 463–485. Rosenzweig, M. (1971) The paradox of enrichment. Science, 171, 385–387. Royama, T. (1992) Analytical Population Dynamics. Chapman & Hall, London. Sæther, B.-E., Engen, S. & Matthysen, E. (2002) Demographic characteristics and population dynamical patterns of solitary birds. Science, 295, 2070– 2073. Shimada, M. & Tuda, M. (1996) Delayed density dependence and oscillatory population dynamics in overlapping-generation systems of seed beetle Callosobruchus chinensis: matrix population model. Oecologia, 105, 116– 125. Sibley, R.M., Barker, D., Denham, M.C., Hone, J. & Pagel, M. (2005) On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects. Science, 309, 607–610. Sibley, R.M., Barker, D., Hone, J. & Pagel, M. (2007) On the stability of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects. Ecology Letters, 10, 970– 976. Sinclair, A.R.E. & Pech, R.P. (1996) Density dependence, stochasticity, compensation and predator regulation. Oikos, 75, 164–173. Spiegelhalter, D.J., Best, N.G., Carlin, B.P. & van der Linde, A. (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 64, 583–639.
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/29182

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

Request changes to a record

Actions (login required)

View Item