Read, Jonathan M., Eames, Ken T. D. and Edmunds, W. John. (2008) Dynamic social networks and the implications for the spread of infectious disease. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol.5 (No.26). pp. 1001-1007. ISSN 1742-5689

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Abstract

Understanding the nature of human contact patterns is crucial for predicting the impact of future pandemics and devising effective control measures. However, few studies provide a quantitative description of the aspects of social interactions that are most relevant to disease transmission. Here, we present the results from a detailed diary-based survey of casual ( conversational) and close contact ( physical) encounters made by a small peer group of 49 adults who recorded 8661 encounters with 3528 different individuals over 14 non-consecutive days. We find that the stability of interactions depends on the intimacy of contact and social context. Casual contact encounters mostly occur in the workplace and are predominantly irregular, while close contact encounters mostly occur at home or in social situations and tend to be more stable. Simulated epidemics of casual contact transmission involve a large number of non-repeated encounters, and the social network is well captured by a random mixing model. However, the stability of the social network should be taken into account for close contact infections. Our findings have implications for the modelling of human epidemics and planning pandemic control policies based on social distancing methods.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HM Sociology Q Science R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Social networks, Social networks -- Mathematical models, Communicable diseases -- Transmission, Airborne infection, Epidemiology, Social distance
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Publisher:	The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN:	1742-5689
Official Date:	6 September 2008
Volume:	Vol.5
Number:	No.26
Number of Pages:	7
Page Range:	pp. 1001-1007
Identification Number:	10.1098/rsif.2008.0013
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Emmanuel College (University of Cambridge)
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/29675

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