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Dynamic social networks and the implications for the spread of infectious disease
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Read, Jonathan M., Eames, Ken T. D. and Edmunds, W. John (2008) Dynamic social networks and the implications for the spread of infectious disease. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol.5 (No.26). pp. 1001-1007. doi:10.1098/rsif.2008.0013 ISSN 1742-5689.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2008.0013
Abstract
Understanding the nature of human contact patterns is crucial for predicting the impact of future pandemics and devising effective control measures. However, few studies provide a quantitative description of the aspects of social interactions that are most relevant to disease transmission. Here, we present the results from a detailed diary-based survey of casual ( conversational) and close contact ( physical) encounters made by a small peer group of 49 adults who recorded 8661 encounters with 3528 different individuals over 14 non-consecutive days. We find that the stability of interactions depends on the intimacy of contact and social context. Casual contact encounters mostly occur in the workplace and are predominantly irregular, while close contact encounters mostly occur at home or in social situations and tend to be more stable. Simulated epidemics of casual contact transmission involve a large number of non-repeated encounters, and the social network is well captured by a random mixing model. However, the stability of the social network should be taken into account for close contact infections. Our findings have implications for the modelling of human epidemics and planning pandemic control policies based on social distancing methods.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HM Sociology Q Science R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Social networks, Social networks -- Mathematical models, Communicable diseases -- Transmission, Airborne infection, Epidemiology, Social distance | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of The Royal Society Interface | ||||
| Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||
| ISSN: | 1742-5689 | ||||
| Official Date: | 6 September 2008 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Vol.5 | ||||
| Number: | No.26 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 7 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 1001-1007 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rsif.2008.0013 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
| Funder: | National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Emmanuel College (University of Cambridge) |
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