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Modelling foot-and-mouth disease : a comparison between the UK and Denmark
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Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matthew James. (2008) Modelling foot-and-mouth disease : a comparison between the UK and Denmark. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol.85 (No.1-2). pp. 107-124. ISSN 0167-5877
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.01.008
Abstract
Whilst the UK 2001 FMD (foot-and-mouth disease) outbreak provides an extremely rich source of spatio-temporal epidemic data, it is not clear how the models and parameters from the UK can be translated to other scenarios. Here we consider how the model framework used to capture the UK epidemic can be applied to a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Denmark. Whilst pigs played a relatively minor role in the UK epidemic (being the infected animal on just 18 farms), they dominate the Danish livestock landscape. In addition, it is not clear whether transmission parameters from the UK will transfer to Denmark where farming practices may be significantly different. We therefore explore a large volume of high-dimensional parameter space, but seek to relate final epidemic size, risk of spread to Danish islands and potential success of control measures, to early indicators of epidemic dynamics. The results of this extensive modelling exercise therefore allow us to provide timely advice on control options based on the observed behaviours of the first few generations. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subjects: | S Agriculture > SF Animal culture | ||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Mathematics | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Preventive Veterinary Medicine | ||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||
| ISSN: | 0167-5877 | ||||
| Official Date: | 15 June 2008 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Vol.85 | ||||
| Number: | No.1-2 | ||||
| Number of Pages: | 18 | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 107-124 | ||||
| Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.01.008 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/29977 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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