Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matthew James. (2008) Modelling foot-and-mouth disease : a comparison between the UK and Denmark. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol.85 (No.1-2). pp. 107-124. ISSN 0167-5877

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Abstract

Whilst the UK 2001 FMD (foot-and-mouth disease) outbreak provides an extremely rich source of spatio-temporal epidemic data, it is not clear how the models and parameters from the UK can be translated to other scenarios. Here we consider how the model framework used to capture the UK epidemic can be applied to a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Denmark. Whilst pigs played a relatively minor role in the UK epidemic (being the infected animal on just 18 farms), they dominate the Danish livestock landscape. In addition, it is not clear whether transmission parameters from the UK will transfer to Denmark where farming practices may be significantly different. We therefore explore a large volume of high-dimensional parameter space, but seek to relate final epidemic size, risk of spread to Danish islands and potential success of control measures, to early indicators of epidemic dynamics. The results of this extensive modelling exercise therefore allow us to provide timely advice on control options based on the observed behaviours of the first few generations. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	S Agriculture > SF Animal culture
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Journal or Publication Title:	Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0167-5877
Date:	15 June 2008
Volume:	Vol.85
Number:	No.1-2
Number of Pages:	18
Page Range:	pp. 107-124
Identification Number:	10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.01.008
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/29977

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