The Library

Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic

Tools

Tildesley, Michael J., Deardon, Rob, Savill, Nicholas J., Bessell, Paul R., Brooks, Stephen P., Woolhouse, Mark E. J., Grenfell, Bryan T. and Keeling, Matthew James. (2008) Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. Biological Sciences , Vol.275 (No.1641). pp. 1459-1468. ISSN 0962-8452

Preview

Text
WRAP_Tildeslley_Proc. R. Soc. B-2008-Tildesley-1459-68.pdf - Published Version
Download (355Kb) | Preview

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2008.0006

Abstract

Since 2001 models of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease, supported by the data from the UK epidemic, have been expounded as some of the best examples of problem-driven epidemic models. These claims are generally based on a comparison between model results and epidemic data at fairly coarse spatio-temporal resolution. Here, we focus on a comparison between model and data at the individual farm level, assessing the potential of the model to predict the infectious status of farms in both the short and long terms. Although the accuracy with which the model predicts farms reporting infection is between 5 and 15%, these low levels are attributable to the expected level of variation between epidemics, and are comparable to the agreement between two independent model simulations. By contrast, while the accuracy of predicting culls is higher (20-30%), this is lower than expected from the comparison between model epidemics. These results generally support the contention that the type of the model used in 2001 was a reliable representation of the epidemic process, but highlight the difficulties of predicting the complex human response, in terms of control strategies to the perceived epidemic risk.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Epidemics -- Mathematical models -- History, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title:	Proceedings of the Royal Society B. Biological Sciences
Publisher:	Royal Society of Chemistry
ISSN:	0962-8452
Date:	22 June 2008
Volume:	Vol.275
Number:	No.1641
Number of Pages:	10
Page Range:	pp. 1459-1468
Identification Number:	10.1098/rspb.2008.0006
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
Funder:	Wellcome Trust (London, England), National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH)
References:	Anderson, I. 2002 Foot and mouth disease 2001: lessons to be learned enquiry. London, UK: The Stationary Office. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1983 Vaccination against rubella and measles—quantitative investigations of different policies. J. Hyg. 90, 259–325. Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A. & Anderson, R. M. 2001a The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science 292, 1155–1160. (doi:10.1126/science.1061020) Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A. & Anderson, R. M. 2001b Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Nature 413, 542–548. (doi:10.1038/35097116) Ferguson, N. M., Keeling, M. J., Edmunds, W. J., Gani, R., Grenfell, B. T., Anderson, R. M. & Leach, S. 2003 Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425, 681–685. (doi:10.1038/nature02007) Ferguson, N. M., Cummings, D. A. T., Cauchemez, S., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Meeyai, A., Iamsirithaworn, S. & Burke, D. S. 2005 Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437, 209–214. (doi:10.1038/nature04017) Ferris, N. P., King, D. P., Reid, S. M., Shaw, A. E. & Hutchings, G. H. 2006 Comparisons of original laboratory results and retrospective analysis by real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR of virological samples collected from confirmed cases of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK in 2001. Vet. Rec. 159, 373–378. Hall, I. M., Egan, J. R., Barrass, I., Gani, R. & Leach, S. 2007 Comparison of smallpox outbreak control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model. Epidemiol. Infect. 135, 1133–1144. (doi:10.1017/S0950268806007783) Honhold, N., Taylor, N. M., Wingfield, A., Einshoj, P., Middlemass, C., Eppink, L., Wroth, P. & Mansley, L. M. 2004 Evaluation of the application of veterinary judgement in the pre-emptive cull of contiguous premises during the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Cumbria in 2001. Vet. Rec. 155, 349–355. Kao, R. R. 2003 The impact of local heterogeneity on alternative control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease. Proc. R. Soc. B 270, 2557–2564. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2003. 2546) Keeling, M. J. et al. 2001 Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294, 813–817. (doi:10.1126/science. 1065973) Keeling, M. J., Woolhouse, M. E. J., May, R. M., Davies, G. & Grenfell, B. T. 2003 Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease. Nature 421, 136–142. (doi:10.1038/nature01343) Kitching, R. P., Hutber, A. M. & Thrusfield, M. V. 2005 A review of foot-and-mouth disease with special consideration for the clinical and epidemiological factors relevant to predictive modelling of the disease. Vet. J. 169, 197–209. (doi:10.1016/j.tvjl.2004.06.001) Longini, I. M., Halloran, M. E., Nizam, A. & Yang, Y. 2004 Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am. J. Epidemiol. 159, 623–633. (doi:10.1093/aje/kwh092) Morris, R. S.,Wilesmith, J.W., Stern, M.W., Sanson, R. L. & Stevenson, M. A. 2001 Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001. Vet. Rec. 149, 137. Savill, N. J., Shaw, D. J., Deardon, R., Tildesley, M. J., Keeling, M. J., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Brooks, S. P. & Grenfell, B. T. 2007 Effects of data quality on farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic. J. R. Soc. Interface 4, 235–241. (doi:10. 1098/rsif.2006.0178) Thrusfield, M., Mansley, L. M., Dunlop, P. J., Taylor, J., Pawson, A. & Stringer, L. 2005 The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway, 2001. 1: characteristics and control. Vet. Rec. 156, 229–252. Tildesley, M. J., Savill, N. J., Shaw, D. J., Deardon, R., Brooks, S. P., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Grenfell, B. T. & Keeling, M. J. 2006 Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Great Britain. Nature 440, 83–86. (doi:10.1038/nature04324)
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/30145