Clements, Michael P.. (2008) Consensus and uncertainty : using forecast probabilities of output declines. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.24 (No.1). pp. 76-86. ISSN 0169-2070

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Abstract

A number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output. (C) 2007 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Uncertainty, Rational expectations (Economic theory), Industrial productivity, Input-output analysis, Economic forecasting, Surveys
Journal or Publication Title:	International Journal of Forecasting
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0169-2070
Date:	January 2008
Volume:	Vol.24
Number:	No.1
Number of Pages:	11
Page Range:	pp. 76-86
Identification Number:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.003
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/30267

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