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An asset residual life prediction model based on expert judgments
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Wang, W. and Zhang, Wenjuan. (2008) An asset residual life prediction model based on expert judgments. European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.188 (No.2). pp. 496-505. ISSN 0377-2217
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2007.03.044
Abstract
An appropriate and accurate residual life prediction for an asset is essential for cost effective and timely maintenance planning and scheduling. The paper reports the use of expert judgments as the additional information to predict a regularly monitored asset's residual life. The expert judgment is made on the basis of measured condition monitoring parameters, and is treated as a random variable, which may be described by a probability distribution due to the uncertainty involved. Since most expert judgments are in the form of a set of integer numbers, we can either directly use a discrete distribution or use a continuous distribution after some transformation. A key concept used in this paper is condition residual life where the residual life at the point of checking is conditional on, among others, the past expert judgments made on the same asset to date. Stochastic filtering theory is used to predict the residual life given available expert judgments. Artificial, simulated and real data are used for validating and testing the model developed. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Statistics |
| Journal or Publication Title: | European Journal of Operational Research |
| Publisher: | Elsevier Science BV |
| ISSN: | 0377-2217 |
| Date: | 16 July 2008 |
| Volume: | Vol.188 |
| Number: | No.2 |
| Number of Pages: | 10 |
| Page Range: | pp. 496-505 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.ejor.2007.03.044 |
| Status: | Peer Reviewed |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/30579 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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