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The obstinate passion of foreign exchange professionals: Technical analysis

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Menkhoff, Lukas and Taylor, Mark P. (2007) The obstinate passion of foreign exchange professionals: Technical analysis. Journal of Economic Literature, 45 (4). pp. 936-972. doi:10.1257/jel.45.4.936

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.45.4.936

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Abstract

Technical analysis involves the prediction Of asset price movements from inductive analysis of past movements. We establish a number of stylized facts, including that technical analysis is widespread in the foreign exchange market and that it may be profitable. We then analyze four arguments that have been put forward to explain this: that the market may not be fully rational; that technical analysis may exploit the influence of official interventions; that it may be an efficient form of information processing; and that it may inform on nonfundamental influences. While each may have some validity, the latter is the most plausible.

Item Type: Journal Item
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Economic Literature
Publisher: American Economic Association
ISSN: 0022-0515
Official Date: December 2007
Dates:
DateEvent
December 2007Published
Volume: 45
Number: 4
Number of Pages: 37
Page Range: pp. 936-972
DOI: 10.1257/jel.45.4.936
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

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