Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease
Read, Jonathan M. and Keeling, Matthew James (2007) Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease. Ecology Letters, Vol.10 (No.9). pp. 818-827. ISSN 1461-023XFull text not available from this repository.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x
Traditional models of disease evolution are based upon the deterministic competition between strains that confer complete cross-immunity, and predict the selection of strains with higher basic reproductive ratios (R-0). In contrast, evolution in a stochastic setting is determined by a complex mixture of influences. Here, to isolate the impact of stochasticity, we constrain all competing strains to have an equal basic reproductive ratio - thereby eliminating deterministic selection. The resulting stochastic models predict an evolutionary unstable strategy, which separates a region favouring the evolution of rapid-transmission (acute) strains from one favouring persistent (chronic) strains. We find this to be a generic phenomenon with strain evolution consistently driven towards extremes of epidemiological behaviour. Even in the absence of an equal R-0 constraint, such stochastic selective pressures operate in addition to standard deterministic selection and will therefore influence the evolutionary behaviour of disease in an scenarios.
|Item Type:||Journal Item|
|Subjects:||Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Faculty of Science > Mathematics
|Journal or Publication Title:||Ecology Letters|
|Publisher:||Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.|
|Number of Pages:||10|
|Page Range:||pp. 818-827|
|Access rights to Published version:||Restricted or Subscription Access|
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