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Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease
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Read, Jonathan M. and Keeling, Matthew James (2007) Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease. Ecology Letters, Vol.10 (No.9). pp. 818-827. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x
Abstract
Traditional models of disease evolution are based upon the deterministic competition between strains that confer complete cross-immunity, and predict the selection of strains with higher basic reproductive ratios (R-0). In contrast, evolution in a stochastic setting is determined by a complex mixture of influences. Here, to isolate the impact of stochasticity, we constrain all competing strains to have an equal basic reproductive ratio - thereby eliminating deterministic selection. The resulting stochastic models predict an evolutionary unstable strategy, which separates a region favouring the evolution of rapid-transmission (acute) strains from one favouring persistent (chronic) strains. We find this to be a generic phenomenon with strain evolution consistently driven towards extremes of epidemiological behaviour. Even in the absence of an equal R-0 constraint, such stochastic selective pressures operate in addition to standard deterministic selection and will therefore influence the evolutionary behaviour of disease in an scenarios.
Item Type: | Journal Item | ||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology | ||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Journal or Publication Title: | Ecology Letters | ||||
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. | ||||
ISSN: | 1461-023X | ||||
Official Date: | September 2007 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Vol.10 | ||||
Number: | No.9 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 10 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 818-827 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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