Read, Jonathan M. and Keeling, Matthew James (2007) Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease. Ecology Letters, Vol.10 (No.9). pp. 818-827. ISSN 1461-023X

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Abstract

Traditional models of disease evolution are based upon the deterministic competition between strains that confer complete cross-immunity, and predict the selection of strains with higher basic reproductive ratios (R-0). In contrast, evolution in a stochastic setting is determined by a complex mixture of influences. Here, to isolate the impact of stochasticity, we constrain all competing strains to have an equal basic reproductive ratio - thereby eliminating deterministic selection. The resulting stochastic models predict an evolutionary unstable strategy, which separates a region favouring the evolution of rapid-transmission (acute) strains from one favouring persistent (chronic) strains. We find this to be a generic phenomenon with strain evolution consistently driven towards extremes of epidemiological behaviour. Even in the absence of an equal R-0 constraint, such stochastic selective pressures operate in addition to standard deterministic selection and will therefore influence the evolutionary behaviour of disease in an scenarios.

Item Type:	Journal Item
Subjects:	Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Journal or Publication Title:	Ecology Letters
Publisher:	Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
ISSN:	1461-023X
Date:	September 2007
Volume:	Vol.10
Number:	No.9
Number of Pages:	10
Page Range:	pp. 818-827
Identification Number:	10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/31377

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