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An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: A pooled approach
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Clements, Michael P., Joutz, Fred and Stekler, Herman O.. (2007) An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: A pooled approach. JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, 22 (1). pp. 121-136. ISSN 0883-7252
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.954
Abstract
The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable. Rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest, we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons. We conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences |
| Journal or Publication Title: | JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS |
| Publisher: | JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD |
| ISSN: | 0883-7252 |
| Date: | January 2007 |
| Volume: | 22 |
| Number: | 1 |
| Number of Pages: | 16 |
| Page Range: | pp. 121-136 |
| Identification Number: | 10.1002/jae.954 |
| Publication Status: | Published |
| URI: | http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/32132 |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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