An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve : a pooled approach
Clements, Michael P., Joutz, Fred and Stekler, Herman O.. (2007) An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve : a pooled approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume 22 (Number 1). pp. 121-136. ISSN 0883-7252Full text not available from this repository.
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.954
The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable. Rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest, we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons. We conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts.
|Item Type:||Journal Article|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
H Social Sciences
|Divisions:||Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics|
|Journal or Publication Title:||Journal of Applied Econometrics|
|Publisher:||Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc|
|Official Date:||January 2007|
|Number of Pages:||16|
|Page Range:||pp. 121-136|
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