The Library

Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations

Tools

Keeling, Matthew James, Danon, Leon, Vernon, Matthew C. and House, Thomas A.. (2010) Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations. National Academy of Sciences. Proceedings, Vol.107 (No.19). pp. 8866-8870. ISSN 0027-8424

PDF
WRAP_Keeling_Individual_identity.pdf - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Download (599Kb)

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1000416107

Abstract

The theory of networks has had a huge impact in both the physical and life sciences, shaping our understanding of the interaction between multiple elements in complex systems. In particular, networks have been extensively used in predicting the spread of infectious diseases where individuals, or populations of individuals, interact with a limited set of others—defining the network through which the disease can spread. Here for such disease models we consider three assumptions for capturing the network of movements between populations, and focus on two applied problems supported by detailed data from Great Britain: the commuter movement of workers between local areas (wards) and the permanent movement of cattle between farms. For such metapopulation networks, we show that the identity of individuals responsible for making network connections can have a significant impact on the infection dynamics, with clear implications for detailed public health and veterinary applications.

Item Type:

Journal Article

Subjects:

Q Science > QA Mathematics
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine

Divisions:

Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Faculty of Science > Mathematics

Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):

Communicable diseases -- Transmission, Communicable diseases -- Mathematical models, Social sciences -- Network analysis, Commuters -- Mathematical models, Cattle -- Mathematical models

Journal or Publication Title:

National Academy of Sciences. Proceedings

Publisher:

National Academy of Sciences

ISSN:

0027-8424

Official Date:

11 May 2010

Dates:

Date	Event
11 May 2010	Published

Volume:

Vol.107

Number:

No.19

Number of Pages:

Page Range:

pp. 8866-8870

Identification Number:

10.1073/pnas.1000416107

Status:

Peer Reviewed

Access rights to Published version:

Open Access

Funder:

Wellcome Trust (London, England), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC), Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics Program

References:

1. Lloyd A, May R (2001) Epidemiology—how viruses spread among computers and
people. Science 292:1316–1317.
2. Jeong H, Tombor B, Albert R, Oltvai Z, Barabasi A (2000) The large-scale organization
of metabolic networks. Nature 407:651–654.
3. Williams R, Berlow E, Dunne J, Barabasi A, Martinez N (2002) Two degrees of
separation in complex food webs. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:12913–12916.
4. Eubank S, Guclu H, Kumar V, Marathe M (2004) Modelling disease outbreaks in
realistic urban social networks. Nature 429:180–184.
5. Watts D, Strogatz S (1998) Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks. Nature 393:
440–442.
6. Keeling MJ, Eames KTD (2005) Networks and epidemic models. J R Soc Interface 2:
295–307.
7. Klovdahl AS, et al. (1994) Social networks and infectious disease: The Colorado
Springs study. Soc Sci Med 38:79–88.
8. Wylie J, Jolly A (2001) Patterns of chlamydia and gonorrhea infection in sexual
networks in Manitoba, Canada. Sex Transm Dis 28:14–24.
9. Grais R, Glass G (2003) Assessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread
of pandemic influenza. Eur J Epidemiol 18:1065–1072.
10. Viboud C, et al. (2006) Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of
influenza. Science 312:447–451.
11. Grais RF, Ellis JH, Glass GE (2003) Forecasting the geographical spread of smallpox
cases by air travel. Epidemiol Infect 131:849–857.
12. Hufnagel L, Brockmann D, Geisel T (2004) Forecast and control of epidemics in
a globalized world. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:15124–15129.
13. Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthélemy M, Vespignani A (2006) The role of the airline
transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proc
Natl Acad Sci USA 103:2015–2020.
14. Hall IM, Egan JR, Barrass I, Gani R, Leach S (2007) Comparison of smallpox outbreak
control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model. Epidemiol Infect 135:
1133–1144.
15. Sattenspiel L, Mobarry A, Herring DA (2000) Modeling the influence of settlement
structure on the spread of influenza among communities. Am J Hum Biol 12:736–748.
16. Riley S (2007) Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease. Science
316:1298–1301.
17. Danon L, House TA, Keeling MJ (2010) The role of routine versus random movements
on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics 1:250–258.
18. Lysons RE, Gibbens JC, Smith LH (2007) Progress with enhancing veterinary
surveillance in the United Kingdom. Vet Rec 160:105–112.
19. Kao RR, Danon L, Green DM, Kiss IZ (2006) Demographic structure and pathogen
dynamics on the network of livestock movements in Great Britain. Proc R Soc Lond B
Biol Sci 273:1999–2007.
20. Robinson SE, Everett MG, Christley RM (2007) Recent network evolution increases the
potential for large epidemics in the British cattle population. J R Soc Interface 4:
669–674.
21. Vernon MC, Keeling MJ (2009) Representing the UK’s cattle herd as static and
dynamic networks. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 276:469–476.
22. Smith D, Lucey B, Waller L, Childs J, Real L (2002) Predicting the spatial dynamics of
rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:3668–3672.
23. Levins R (1969) Some demographic and genetic consequences of environmental
heterogeneity for biological control. Bull Entomol Soc Am 15:237–240.
24. Hanski I, Gaggiotti O (2004) Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution of Metapopulations
(Academic Press, New York).
25. Sattenspiel L, Dietz K (1995) A structured epidemic model incorporating geographicmobility
among regions. Math Biosci 128:71–91.
26. Grenfell B, Bjornstad O, Kappey J (2001) Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in
measles epidemics. Nature 414:716–723.
27. Cooper BS, Pitman RJ, Edmunds WJ, Gay NJ (2006) Delaying the international spread
of pandemic influenza. PLoS Med 3:e212.
28. Keeling MJ, Rohani P (2002) Estimating spatial coupling in epidemiological systems: A
mechanistic approach. Ecol Lett 5:20–29.
29. Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM (2007) Frequent travelers and rate of
spread of epidemics. Emerg Infect Dis 13:1288–1294.
30. Bartlett M (1957) Measles periodicity and community size. J R Stat Soc A 120:48–70.
31. Rohani P, Keeling MJ, Grenfell B (2002) The interplay between determinism and
stochasticity in childhood diseases. Am Nat 159:469–481.
32. Lloyd AL (2001) Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic
distributions of infectious periods. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 268:985–993.
33. Gillespie DT (2001) Approximate accelerated stochastic simulation of chemically
reacting systems. J Chem Phys 115:1716–1733.