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Disease evolution across a range of spatio-temporal scales

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Read, Jonathan M. and Keeling, Matthew James (2006) Disease evolution across a range of spatio-temporal scales. Theoretical Population Biology, Volume 70 (Number 2). pp. 201-213. doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2006.04.006

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2006.04.006

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Abstract

Traditional explorations of infectious disease evolution have considered the competition between two cross-reactive strains within the standard framework of disease models. Such techniques predict that diseases should evolve to be highly transmissible, benign to the host and possess a long infectious period: in general, diseases do not conform to this ideal. Here we consider a more holistic approach, suggesting that evolution is a trade-off between adaptive pressures at different scales: within host, between hosts and at the population level. We present a model combining within-host pathogen dynamics and transmission between individuals governed by an explicit contact network, where transmission dynamics between hosts are a function of the interaction between the pathogen and the hosts' immune system, though ultimately constrained by the contacts each infected host possesses. Our results show how each of the scales places constraints on the evolutionary behavior, and that complex dynamics may emerge due to the feedbacks between epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics. In particular, multiple stable states can occur with switching between them stochastically driven. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH426 Genetics
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010)
Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Journal or Publication Title: Theoretical Population Biology
Publisher: Academic Press
ISSN: 0040-5809
Official Date: September 2006
Dates:
DateEvent
September 2006Published
Volume: Volume 70
Number: Number 2
Number of Pages: 13
Page Range: pp. 201-213
DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2006.04.006
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access

Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge

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