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Unemployment equilibria and input prices : theory and evidence from the United States

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Carruth, Alan A. , Hooker, N. and Oswald, Andrew J. (1998) Unemployment equilibria and input prices : theory and evidence from the United States. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.80 (No.4). pp. 621-628. doi:10.1162/003465398557708

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003465398557708

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Abstract

The paper develops an efficiency-wage model where input prices affect the equlibrium rate of unemployment. We show that a simple framework based on only two prices (the real price of oil and the real rate of interest) is able to explain the main post-war movements in the rate of U.S. joblessnss. The equations do well in forecasting unemployment many out-of-sample, and provide evidence that the oil price spike associated with Iraq's invasion of Kuweit appears to be a component of the "mystery" recession which followed.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Unemployment -- United States, Petroleum products -- Prices, Petroleum industry and trade
Journal or Publication Title: Review of Economics and Statistics
Publisher: MIT Press
ISSN: 0034-6535
Official Date: November 1998
Dates:
DateEvent
November 1998Published
Volume: Vol.80
Number: No.4
Page Range: pp. 621-628
DOI: 10.1162/003465398557708
Status: Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version: Open Access
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC), Leverhulme Trust (LT)

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