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Forecasting quarterly aggregate crime series
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UNSPECIFIED (2005) Forecasting quarterly aggregate crime series. MANCHESTER SCHOOL, 73 (6). pp. 709-727. ISSN 1463-6786.
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Abstract
In this paper we assess the forecasting performance of quarterly economic models of aggregate property and personal crime. We show that models that include long-run relationships between crime and its economic determinants tend to generate inaccurate forecasts, and attribute this to structural change. The forecast performance of the economic models is compared with that of time-series models, and forecast encompassing tests are reported.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | MANCHESTER SCHOOL | ||||
Publisher: | BLACKWELL PUBLISHING | ||||
ISSN: | 1463-6786 | ||||
Official Date: | December 2005 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 73 | ||||
Number: | 6 | ||||
Number of Pages: | 19 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 709-727 | ||||
Publication Status: | Published |
Data sourced from Thomson Reuters' Web of Knowledge
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