Petrovic, Dobrila (1997) Modelling and analysis of serial supply chains in uncertain environments. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

The subject matter of this thesis is the modelling and analysis of serial supply chain
(SC) behaviour in an uncertain environment. Main sources of uncertainty inherent in a
serial SC and its environment have been identified, including customer demand,
external supplier reliability, supply along the chain and lead times. A new approach to
modelling and treating these uncertainties based on fuzzy sets theory has been
proposed. It has been shown that the application of fuzzy sets is useful in cases where
there is lack of available data about SC parameters, lack of certainty in data or when
data does not exist.
A new original approach to SC analysis has been developed and implemented
using C++ programming language. In this approach, two types of models have been
combined: (1) SC fuzzy, analytical models and (2) SC simulation models. The new SC
fuzzy analytical models have been developed which treat different SC uncertainties
simultaneously. In these models, order-up-to levels for all inventories along an SC are
determined in such a way as to minimise total possible inventory costs over a given
time. Two SC control strategies which take into consideration different uncertainties
and reflect different levels of SC integration have been proposed and built into the SC
fuzzy models, including: (1) fully decentralised control, and (2) a new developed
strategy of partially coordinated control. The aim of the new SC simulation models
developed is to evaluate SC performance achieved by applying order-up-to levels and
replenishment quantities recommended by the fuzzy models.
The SC fuzzy and simulation models, working in a coordinated manner, have
been used to gain further insight into SC dynamic behaviour and its performance in an
uncertain environment, and to enhance decision making on SC control parameters in
the presence of uncertainty. The application of the developed SC tool in the various
analyses has been demonstrated, including: (1) quantification and comparison of SC
performance under different control strategies, such as decentralised and partially
coordinated control, (2) quantification of the effects of changing uncertainty in SC data
(e. g., customer demand) on SC behaviour and its, performance, (3) analysis of the
effects of uncertainty in external supplier reliability and investigation of the ways of
making an SC less vulnerable to this uncertainty, and (4) application of two new
procedures for one-site and multi-site compensation which have been developed to
compensate for the negative effects of uncertainty in external supply.

Item Type:	Thesis or Dissertation (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Business logistics -- Mathematical models, Business logistics -- Computer programs
Official Date:	December 1997
Dates:	Date Event December 1997 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	School of Engineering
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Roy, Rajat
Extent:	xi, 269 leaves
Language:	eng
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/34668

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