Sagagi, A. Muhammad (1985) Commercial policy and industrialisation in Nigeria, 1963-1978. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

As a contribution to the continuing debate among trade and
development economists as to the role of industrial strategies
in the pattern of economic development, this study analyses the
experience of one developing country, Nigeria, with an import
substitution strategy. The performance of the industrial sector
is critically assessed and related to the trade policy adopted.
Using published data, the study covers 24 industries and a period
of 16 years, beginning 1963 and extending to 1978.
An analysis of the structure of protection reveals a considerably
high and wide ranging levels of effective protection,
in favour of consumer-goods oriented sectors. The relationship
between these rates of effective protection on the one hand and
import substitution and sectoral growth on the other was examined
using various parametric and non-parametric tests of association.
The evidence, which is only suggestive in nature, indicates that
the structure of protection does play a role, albeit a minimal
one, in stimulating industrial growth.
Using Input-Output techniques, the employment, foreign exchange
and output implications of the present strategy of Import-
Substitution and of a hypothetical strategy of export promotion
are analysed. There is a general absence of 'key' employment
sectors and, paradoxically, an export promotion strategy is found
to be less employment generating and more capital using but less
foreign exchangeusing than the existing strategy.
Although there is a considerable scope for capital-labour
substitution in many industries, it was found that the often
recommended policy of getting prices 'right' will not be sufficient
to bring about an appreciable improvement in the employment
situation.
The development of factor productivity between 1963 and 1978
for each of the 24 industries was analysed; and three possible
determinants of productivity are investigated: capital intensity
and technical progress, output growth (the Verdoorn's Law) and
trade policy. With regards to the latter, it was found that
periods of especially slack productivity growth roughly correspond
to those in which there was especially restrictive trade policy
as quantified by high erps. The economic efficiency of the
manufacturing sector was appraised using the criteria of net social
profitability, social rate of return and Domestic Resources Costs
(DRCs). Evidence was found in support of the hypothesis that the
resource pull of protection to the protected industries is
accompanied by higher rates of private, but lower rates of social
profitability for the more heavily protected sectors.
The overall conclusion of the thesis is that the policies of
protection should have been more rationally applied and the IS
strategy more rationally executed in line with the country's
enunciated objectives.

Item Type:	Thesis or Dissertation (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Nigeria -- Commercial policy, Nigeria -- Economic conditions -- 1960-, Import substitution -- Nigeria, Industries -- Nigeria
Official Date:	May 1985
Dates:	Date Event May 1985 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Economics
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Nath, S. K. ; Roe, Alan, 1942-
Extent:	[xxx], 534 leaves
Language:	eng
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/34674

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