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Representing the UK's cattle herd as static and dynamic networks

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Vernon, Matthew C. and Keeling, Matthew James. (2009) Representing the UK's cattle herd as static and dynamic networks. Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences, Vol.276 (No.1656). pp. 469-476. ISSN 0962-8452

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2008.1009

Abstract

Network models are increasingly being used to understand the spread of diseases through sparsely connected populations, with particular interest in the impact of animal movements upon the dynamics of infectious diseases. Detailed data collected by the UK government on the movement of cattle may be represented as a network, where animal holdings are nodes, and an edge is drawn between nodes where a movement of animals has occurred. These network representations may vary from a simple static representation, to a more complex, fully dynamic one where daily movements are explicitly captured. Using stochastic disease simulations, a wide range of network representations of the UK cattle herd are compared. We find that the simpler static network representations are often deficient when compared with a fully dynamic representation, and should therefore be used only with caution in epidemiological modelling. In particular, due to temporal structures within the dynamic network, static networks consistently fail to capture the predicted epidemic behaviour associated with dynamic networks even when parameterized to match early growth rates.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QL Zoology Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) > Biological Sciences ( -2010) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Cattle -- Transportation -- Mathematical models, Cattle -- Diseases, Communicable diseases -- Transmission -- Mathematical models, Social sciences -- Network analysis
Journal or Publication Title:	Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
Publisher:	The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN:	0962-8452
Date:	February 2009
Volume:	Vol.276
Number:	No.1656
Page Range:	pp. 469-476
Identification Number:	10.1098/rspb.2008.1009
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Wellcome Trust (London, England)
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/3490