Elsby, Michael W. L. and Smith, Jennifer C. (2010) The great recession in the UK labour market : a transatlantic perspective. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Dept. of Economics. (Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS)).

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Abstract

The increase in unemployment in the United Kingdom that accompanied the Great Recession has been conspicuous by its moderation. The rise in joblessness is dwarfed by the recent experience of the United States, by past recessionary episodes in the U.K. and by the contraction in GDP in the U.K. Increased rates of job loss have played a dominant role in shaping the rise in British unemployment. Unemployment duration has not increased to the levels seen in previous recessions, in contrast to the U.S. where duration substantially exceeds previous peaks. Looking forward, the U.K. labour market appears to have adjusted fully to the shocks that prompted the recession. Signs of reductions in match efficiency witnessed recently in the U.S. are not mirrored in the U.K. In contrast, while long-term unemployment currently remains well below historical levels, recent estimates of job finding rates suggest that it has the potential to rise much further. Thus, a timely recovery in aggregate demand will play an important role in averting persistently high unemployment in the future.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Unemployment -- Great Britain -- History -- 21st century, Unemployment -- United States -- History -- 21st century, Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009, Recessions -- Great Britain -- History
Series Name:	Warwick economics research paper series (TWERPS)
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Dept. of Economics
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	2010
Volume:	Vol.2010
Number:	No.945
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
References:	Elsby, M. W. L., R. Michaels and G. Solon (2009), ‘The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 84-110. Elsby, M. W. L., B. Hobijn and A. Şahin (2009), ‘Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD’, Working Paper no. 14617. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. Elsby, M. W. L., B. Hobijn and A. Şahin (2010), ‘The Labor Market in the Great Recession’, forthcoming Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Gregg, P. and J. Wadsworth (2010), ‘The UK Labour Market and the 2008-9 Recession’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 212, pp. R61-R72. Layard, R., S. Nickell and R. Jackman (1991), Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. Oxford University Press. Machin, S. and A. Manning (1999), ‘The Causes and Consequences of Longterm Unemployment in Europe’, in Handbook of Labor Economics, vol. 3C, edited by Orley C. Ashenfelter and David Card, pp. 3085–3139. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Petrongolo, B. and C. A. Pissarides (2008), ‘The Ins and Outs of European Unemployment’, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, vol. 98, no. 2, pp. 256-262. Pissarides, C. A. (1986), ‘Unemployment and Vacancies in Britain’, Economic Policy, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 499–541. Shimer, R. (2007), ‘Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment’, Working Paper no. 13421. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. Smith, J. C. (forthcoming), ‘The Ins and Outs of UK Unemployment’, Economic Journal.
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/3502

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