Regulating autonomous agents facing conflicting objectives : a command and control example
Smith, J. Q., 1953- and Dodd, Lorraine (2011) Regulating autonomous agents facing conflicting objectives : a command and control example. Working Paper. University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology, Coventry.
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Official URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/crism...
UK military commanders have a degree of devolved decision authority delegated from command and control (C2) regulators, and they are trained and expected to act rationally and accountably. Therefore from a Bayesian perspective they should be subjective expected utility maximizers. In fact they largely appear to be so. However when current tactical objectives conflict with broader campaign objective there is a strong risk that fielded commanders will lose rationality and coherence. By systematically analysing the geometry of their expected utilities, arising from a utility function with two attributes, we demonstrate in this paper that even when a remote C2 regulator can predict only the likely broad shape of her agents' marginal utility functions it is still often possible for her to identify robustly those settings where the commander is at risk of making inappropriate decisions.
|Item Type:||Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)|
|Subjects:||Q Science > QA Mathematics
U Military Science > U Military Science (General)
|Divisions:||Faculty of Science > Statistics|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||Bayesian statistical decision theory, Command of troops -- Mathematical models, Tactics -- Mathematical models|
|Series Name:||Working papers|
|Publisher:||University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology|
|Place of Publication:||Coventry|
|Number of Pages:||12|
|Status:||Not Peer Reviewed|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
|References:|| Dodd, L. Mo¤at, J Smith, J.Q. and Mathieson. G.(2003) "From sim- ple prescriptive to complex descriptive models: an example from a re- cent command decision experiment" Proceedings of the 8th Interna- tional Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium June Washington  Dodd, L.(1997), "Command decision studies for future conflict" DERA Unpublished Report.  Dodd, L. Mo¤at, J. and Smith, J.Q.(2006) "Discontinuities in decision- making when objective conflict: a military command decision case study" J.Oper. Res. Soc.,57, .643 - 654  Dodd, L. and Smith, J.Q. (2010) "Devolving Command Decisions in Complex Operations" CRISM Res. Rep. 10 -17  French, S. and Rios Insua, D.(2000) "Statistical Decision Theory" Arnold  Janis, J.L. and Mann, L.(1977) "Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice and Commitment" Free Press. N.Y.  Moffat, J. (2002) "Command and Control in the Information Age" The Stationary Office, London  Moffat,J. and Witty, S. (2002) "Bayesian Decision Making and military control" J. Oper. Res. Soc. , 53, 709 - 718  Poston, T. and Stewart, I. (1978) "Catastrophe Theory and its applica- tions" Pitman  Smith, J.Q., Harrison, P.J., and Zeeman, E.C.(1981) "The analysis of some discontinuous decision Processes" E. J. Oper.Res. Vol. 7, 30-43.  Smith, J.Q.(2010) "Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice" Cambridge University Press  Zeeman E.C.(1977) "Catastrophe Theory: Selected Papers" Addison Wesley|
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