Smith, J. Q., 1953- and Dodd, Lorraine (2011) Regulating autonomous agents facing conflicting objectives : a command and control example. Working Paper. University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology, Coventry.

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Abstract

UK military commanders have a degree of devolved decision authority delegated from command and control (C2) regulators, and they are trained and expected to act rationally and accountably. Therefore from a Bayesian perspective they should be subjective expected utility maximizers. In fact they largely appear to be so. However when current tactical objectives conflict with broader campaign objective there is a strong risk that fielded commanders will lose rationality and coherence. By systematically analysing the geometry of their expected utilities, arising from a utility function with two attributes, we demonstrate in this paper that even when a remote C2 regulator can predict only the likely broad shape of her agents' marginal utility functions it is still often possible for her to identify robustly those settings where the commander is at risk of making inappropriate decisions.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics U Military Science > U Military Science (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Bayesian statistical decision theory, Command of troops -- Mathematical models, Tactics -- Mathematical models
Series Name:	Working papers
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	2011
Volume:	Vol.2011
Number:	No.12
Number of Pages:	12
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
References:	[1] Dodd, L. Mo¤at, J Smith, J.Q. and Mathieson. G.(2003) "From sim- ple prescriptive to complex descriptive models: an example from a re- cent command decision experiment" Proceedings of the 8th Interna- tional Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium June Washington [2] Dodd, L.(1997), "Command decision studies for future conflict" DERA Unpublished Report. [3] Dodd, L. Mo¤at, J. and Smith, J.Q.(2006) "Discontinuities in decision- making when objective conflict: a military command decision case study" J.Oper. Res. Soc.,57, .643 - 654 [4] Dodd, L. and Smith, J.Q. (2010) "Devolving Command Decisions in Complex Operations" CRISM Res. Rep. 10 -17 [5] French, S. and Rios Insua, D.(2000) "Statistical Decision Theory" Arnold [6] Janis, J.L. and Mann, L.(1977) "Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice and Commitment" Free Press. N.Y. [7] Moffat, J. (2002) "Command and Control in the Information Age" The Stationary Office, London [8] Moffat,J. and Witty, S. (2002) "Bayesian Decision Making and military control" J. Oper. Res. Soc. , 53, 709 - 718 [9] Poston, T. and Stewart, I. (1978) "Catastrophe Theory and its applica- tions" Pitman [10] Smith, J.Q., Harrison, P.J., and Zeeman, E.C.(1981) "The analysis of some discontinuous decision Processes" E. J. Oper.Res. Vol. 7, 30-43. [11] Smith, J.Q.(2010) "Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice" Cambridge University Press [12] Zeeman E.C.(1977) "Catastrophe Theory: Selected Papers" Addison Wesley
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/35058

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