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Decision making with decision event graphs

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Cowell, Robert G., Thwaites, Peter and Smith, J. Q. (2010) Decision making with decision event graphs. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology. Working papers, Vol.2010 (No.15).

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Official URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/crism...

Abstract

We introduce a new modelling representation, the Decision Event Graph (DEG), for asymmetric
multistage decision problems. The DEG explicitly encodes conditional independences
and has additional significant advantages over other representations of asymmetric decision
problems. The colouring of edges makes it possible to identify conditional independences on
decision trees, and these coloured trees serve as a basis for the construction of the DEG.
We provide an efficient backward-induction algorithm for finding optimal decision rules on
DEGs, and work through an example showing the efficacy of these graphs. Simplifications of
the topology of a DEG admit analogues to the sufficiency principle and barren node deletion
steps used with influence diagrams.

Item Type:

Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)

Subjects:

Q Science > QA Mathematics

Divisions:

Faculty of Science > Statistics

Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):

Statistical decision, Decision trees

Series Name:

Working papers

Publisher:

University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology

Place of Publication:

Coventry

Official Date:

2010

Dates:

Date	Event
2010	Published

Volume:

Vol.2010

Number:

No.15

Number of Pages:

Status:

Not Peer Reviewed

Access rights to Published version:

Open Access

Funder:

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

Grant number:

EP/F036752/1 (EPSRC)

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