Decision making with decision event graphs
Cowell, Robert G., Thwaites, Peter and Smith, J. Q., 1953- (2010) Decision making with decision event graphs. Working Paper. University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology, Coventry.
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We introduce a new modelling representation, the Decision Event Graph (DEG), for asymmetric multistage decision problems. The DEG explicitly encodes conditional independences and has additional significant advantages over other representations of asymmetric decision problems. The colouring of edges makes it possible to identify conditional independences on decision trees, and these coloured trees serve as a basis for the construction of the DEG. We provide an efficient backward-induction algorithm for finding optimal decision rules on DEGs, and work through an example showing the efficacy of these graphs. Simplifications of the topology of a DEG admit analogues to the sufficiency principle and barren node deletion steps used with influence diagrams.
|Item Type:||Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)|
|Subjects:||Q Science > QA Mathematics|
|Divisions:||Faculty of Science > Statistics|
|Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):||Statistical decision, Decision trees|
|Series Name:||Working papers|
|Publisher:||University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology|
|Place of Publication:||Coventry|
|Number of Pages:||29|
|Status:||Not Peer Reviewed|
|Access rights to Published version:||Open Access|
|Funder:||Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)|
|Grant number:||EP/F036752/1 (EPSRC)|
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