Skip to content Skip to navigation
University of Warwick
  • Study
  • |
  • Research
  • |
  • Business
  • |
  • Alumni
  • |
  • News
  • |
  • About

University of Warwick
Publications service & WRAP

Highlight your research

  • WRAP
    • Home
    • Search WRAP
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse WRAP by Year
    • Browse WRAP by Subject
    • Browse WRAP by Department
    • Browse WRAP by Funder
    • Browse Theses by Department
  • Publications Service
    • Home
    • Search Publications Service
    • Browse by Warwick Author
    • Browse Publications service by Year
    • Browse Publications service by Subject
    • Browse Publications service by Department
    • Browse Publications service by Funder
  • Help & Advice
University of Warwick

The Library

  • Login
  • Admin

Stochastic dynamic Thurstone-Mosteller models for sports tournaments

Tools
- Tools
+ Tools

Cattelan, Manuela, Varin, Cristiano and Firth, David (2010) Stochastic dynamic Thurstone-Mosteller models for sports tournaments. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology. Working papers, Vol.2010 (No.19).

[img]
Preview
PDF
WRAP_Cattelan_10-19v2w.pdf - Published Version - Requires a PDF viewer.

Download (1255Kb)
Official URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/crism...

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

In the course of national sports tournaments, usually lasting several months, it is expected
that the abilities of teams taking part in the tournament change in time. A dynamic extension
of the Thurstone-Mosteller model for paired comparison data is introduced to model
the outcomes of sporting contests allowing for time-varying abilities. It is assumed that the
development of teams' abilities follows a stationary process and a team-specific home effect
is considered. The likelihood function of the proposed model requires the approximation of
a high dimensional integral. This difficulty is overcome by means of maximum simulated
likelihood via the Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane algorithm. Ranking of teams and forecasting
future match results are performed through a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The methodology
is applied to sports data with and without tied contests, namely the 2006-2007 Italian
volleyball league and the 2008-2009 Italian Serie A football season.

Item Type: Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Sports tournaments -- Mathematical models
Series Name: Working papers
Publisher: University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology
Place of Publication: Coventry
Official Date: September 2010
Dates:
DateEvent
September 2010Published
Volume: Vol.2010
Number: No.19
Number of Pages: 25
Institution: University of Warwick
Status: Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version: Open Access

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics

twitter

Email us: wrap@warwick.ac.uk
Contact Details
About Us