Smith, J. Q., 1953-, Dodd, Lorraine and Moffat, J. (2008) Devolving command under conflicting military objectives. Working Paper. Coventry: University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology (CRiSM). (Working papers).

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Abstract

Command and Control (C2) arrangements aim to ensure their autonomous but rational commanders act in a way that is consistent with C2's overall objectives. This can be a challenge, especially in scenarios where individual commanders face conflicting objectives: the success of a mission verses the compromise of a campaign. Building on our experiences in observing the reactions of military in simulated conflict, in this paper we demonstrate how multiattribute utility theory can be used to model the effects of such conflicting objectives on a particular commander's actions. We show that the geometrical forms of expected utilities that arise from the assumption of commander rationality are qualitatively stable in a wide range of scenarios and therefore open to analysis. We proceed to demonstrate how an appreciation of this geometry can aid understanding of the relationship between complex operational environments and the C2 arrangements and also inform selection and training of personnel to address such conflicts appropriately.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics U Military Science > U Military Science (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Military statistics, Command and control systems, Operational readiness (Military science)
Series Name:	Working papers
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Centre for Research in Statistical Methodology (CRiSM)
Place of Publication:	Coventry
Date:	17 March 2008
Volume:	Vol.2008
Number:	No.9
Number of Pages:	24
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
References:	Dodd, L. Moffat, J Smith, J.Q. and Mathieson. G. (2003) From simple prescriptive to complex descriptive models: an example from a recent com- mand decision experiment. Proceedings of the 8th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium June Washington Dodd, L. (1997), Command decision studies for future conflict DERA Unpublished Report. Dodd, L. Moffat, J. and Smith, J.Q. (2006) "Discontinuities in decision- making when objective conflict: a milatary command decsision case study" J.Oper. Res. Soc.,57, p.643 - 654 von Winterfeldt, D. and Edwards, W. (1986) Decision Analysis and be- havioral research models, Cambridge Univ Press French, S. and Rios Insua, D. (2000) Statistical Decision Theory. Arnold Harrison, P.J. and Smith, J.Q. (1980) Discontinuity, decision and conflict( with discussion) Bayesian Statistics 1 Eds Bernado et al p 99- 142. Keeney, R.L. and Raiffa, H. (1976) Decisions with Multiple Objectives. Wiley New York Janis, J.L. and Mann, L. (1977) Decision Making: A Psychological Analy- sis of Conflict, Choice and Commitment. Free Press. N.Y. Moffat, J. (2002) Command and Control in the Information Age. The Stationary Office, London Moffat,J. and Witty, S. (2002) "Bayesian Decision Making and military control" J. of Operations Research Society , 53, 709 - 718 Perry, W. and Moffat, J, (2004) "Information sharing among military head- quarters: the effects on decision making" MG-226-UK, The RAND Corper- ation Santa Monica, CA,USA. Measuring the effects of knowledge in military campaigns. J. of Operations Research Society, 48, 10, 965-72. Poston, T. and Stewart, I. Catastrophe Theory and its applications. Pit- man Saunders, M.J. and Miles, J. (2004) "How can network enabled capability contribute to better command and control" Proceedings of the 9th ICCRTS Copenhagen. Smith, J.Q. (1979) Mixture Catastrophes and Bayes decision theory. Math Proc.Camb.Phil.Soc.86, 91-101. Smith, J.Q. (1983) Catastrophe Theory: A way of seeing. University College London Research Report. Smith, J.Q., Harrison, P.J., and Zeeman, E.C. (1981) The analysis of some discontinuous decision Processes. European Journnal of Operations Research vol 7 30-43. Zeeman E.C. (1977) Catastrophe Theory: Selected Papers. Addison Wesley.
URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/35485

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