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Targeting vaccination against novel infections : risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain

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Keeling, Matthew James and White, Peter, 1931-. (2011) Targeting vaccination against novel infections : risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain. Journal of the Royal Society - Interface, Vol.8 (No.58). pp. 661-670. ISSN 1742-5662

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2010.0474

Abstract

The emergence of a novel strain of H1N1 influenza virus in Mexico in 2009, and its subsequent worldwide spread, has focused attention to the question of optimal deployment of mass vaccination campaigns. Here, we use three relatively simple models to address three issues of primary concern in the targeting of any vaccine. The advantages of such simple models are that the underlying assumptions and effects of individual parameters are relatively clear, and the impact of uncertainty in the parametrization can be readily assessed in the early stages of an outbreak. In particular, we examine whether targeting risk-groups, age-groups or spatial regions could be optimal in terms of reducing the predicted number of cases or severe effects; and how these targeted strategies vary as the epidemic progresses. We examine the conditions under which it is optimal to initially target vaccination towards those individuals within the population who are most at risk of severe effects of infection. Using age-structured mixing matrices, we show that targeting vaccination towards the more epidemiologically important age groups (5-14 year olds and then 15-24 year olds) leads to the greatest reduction in the epidemic growth and hence reduces the total number of cases. Finally, we consider how spatially targeting the vaccine towards regions of country worst affected could provide an advantage. We discuss how all three of these priorities change as both the speed at which vaccination can be deployed and the start of the vaccination programme is varied.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QH Natural history > QH426 Genetics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Vaccination, H1N1 influenza -- Vaccination -- Great Britain, Influenza -- Vaccination, Age-structured populations, Spatial ecology
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of the Royal Society - Interface
Publisher:	Royal Society Publishing
ISSN:	1742-5662
Date:	6 May 2011
Volume:	Vol.8
Number:	No.58
Page Range:	pp. 661-670
Identification Number:	10.1098/rsif.2010.0474
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC), United States. Dept. of Homeland Security. Science and Technology Directorate
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URI:	http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/id/eprint/36456